A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts
A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts
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DOI：
10.1029/2007gl030288
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发表时间：
2007-07
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
A. Tsonis;Kyle Swanson;Sergey Kravtsov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Tsonis;Kyle Swanson;Sergey Kravtsov
我们构建了1900 - 2000年期间观测到的气候指数网络，并研究了它们的集体行为。结果表明，该网络在此期间同步了数次。我们发现，在那些同步状态之后指数之间耦合强度稳定增加的情况下，同步状态被破坏，之后出现了一种新的气候状态。这些转变与全球气温趋势和厄尔尼诺 - 南方涛动（ENSO）变率的重大变化有关。最近的此类事件被称为20世纪70年代的重大气候转变。我们还在使用最先进模型进行的两次气候模拟中发现了此类行为的证据。这是首次在像气候系统这样规模和复杂程度的物理系统中发现这种似乎与同步混沌理论相符的机制。
We construct a network of observed climate indices in the period 1900–2000 and investigate their collective behavior. The results indicate that this network synchronized several times in this period. We find that in those cases where the synchronous state was followed by a steady increase in the coupling strength between the indices, the synchronous state was destroyed, after which a new climate state emerged. These shifts are associated with significant changes in global temperature trend and in ENSO variability. The latest such event is known as the great climate shift of the 1970s. We also find the evidence for such type of behavior in two climate simulations using a state‐of‐the‐art model. This is the first time that this mechanism, which appears consistent with the theory of synchronized chaos, is discovered in a physical system of the size and complexity of the climate system.