Factors associated with spatial distribution of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome
Factors associated with spatial distribution of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome
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发热伴血小板减少综合征空间分布的相关因素
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141522
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发表时间：
2021-01-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Liu, Qi-Yong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sun, Ji-Min;Wu, Hai-Xia;Liu, Qi-Yong
重症发热伴血小板减少综合征(SFTS)于2009年在内地中国首次发现，近年来地理分布不断扩大。在这项研究中，我们使用MaxEnt建立了包含气象因素、环境因素和家畜密度的SFTS生态位模型。发现海拔、年平均气温、年累积降水量和年平均相对湿度4个显著相关因子的贡献率为94.1%。当海拔在-100~100m之间时，SFTS的发生概率较高，当海拔超过3000m时，SFTS发生的概率接近于0，SFTS对年平均气温、年累积降水量和年平均相对湿度的响应曲线均呈倒V型。年平均气温为12.5-17.5℃，年平均降水量为700-2250 mm，年相对湿度为63-82%。ENMS预测，潜在高危地区主要分布在中国的东部和中部地区。但有一些预测的潜在高危地区，到目前为止还没有报告SFTS病例。要弄清这些地区是否发生过SFTS病例，还需要进行更多的研究。(C)2020爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) was firstly identified in mainland China in 2009 and the geographic distribution has expanded in recent years. In this study, we constructed ecological niche models (ENM) of SFTS with meteorological factors, environmental factor, and density of domestic animals using MaxEnt. We found four significant associated factors including altitude, yearly average temperature, yearly accumulated precipitation, and yearly average relative humidity which accounted for 94.1% percent contribution. SFTS occurrence probability was high when altitude was between -100 m and 100 m, and the probability was nearly 0 when altitude was beyond 3000 m. Response curves of SFTS to the yearly average temperature, yearly accumulated precipitation, and yearly average relative humidity were all reversed V-shape. SFTS occurrence probability was high where the yearly average temperature, yearly accumulated precipitation, and yearly relative humidity were 12.5-17.5 degrees C, 700-2250 mm and 63-82%, respectively. ENMs predicted that the potential high-risk areas were mainly distributed in eastern areas and central areas of China. But there were some predicted potential high-risk areas where no SFTS case was reported up to date. More researches should be done to make clear whether SFTS case had occurred in these areas. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.