Development of a prediction model for 10-year risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in middle-aged Japanese: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study Cohort II
Development of a prediction model for 10-year risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in middle-aged Japanese: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study Cohort II
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ypmed.2012.05.017
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发表时间：
2012-08-01
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
Tsugane, Shoichiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Michikawa, Takehiro;Inoue, Manami;Tsugane, Shoichiro
客观的。本研究的目的是开发一种肝细胞癌 (HCC) 10 年风险评估模型，该模型可以轻松用于一般人群，以帮助预防 HCC。方法。我们的预测模型是根据 17,654 名 40 至 69 岁日本人参加健康检查的数据得出的（随访：1993-2006 年）。应用 Cox 比例风险回归来获得每个预测变量的系数。结果。随访期间，共有104例新诊断HCC病例。检查模型拟合后，我们将年龄、性别、饮酒量、体重指数、糖尿病、咖啡消耗量以及乙型和丙型肝炎病毒感染纳入预测模型。该模型显示出令人满意的辨别力（Harrell 的 c 指数 = 0.94）并且经过良好校准（总体观察/预期比率 = 1.03，95% 置信区间 = 0.83-1.29）。我们还开发了一个简单的风险评分系统。在此系统下总分达到17分或以上的受试者（分数范围：1至19），估计10年HCC风险超过90%； 4分或以下的人估计风险低于0.1%。结论。我们开发了一个简单的日本普通人群 10 年 HCC 风险预测模型，作为公共教育工具。 (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. 保留所有权利。
Objective. The purpose of the present study was to develop a risk estimation model for the 10-year risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that could be easily used in a general population to aid in the prevention of HCC.Methods. Our prediction model was derived from data obtained on 17,654 Japanese aged 40 to 69 years who participated in health checkups (follow-up: 1993-2006). Cox proportional hazards regression was applied to obtain coefficients for each predictor.Results. During follow-up, a total of 104 cases of HCC were newly diagnosed. After checking the model fit, we incorporated age, sex, alcohol consumption, body mass index, diabetes, coffee consumption, and hepatitis B and C virus infection into the prediction model. The model showed satisfactory discrimination (Harrell's c-index = 0.94) and was well calibrated (the overall observed/expected ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval = 0.83-1.29). We also developed a simple risk scoring system. Those subjects with total scores of 17 or more under this system (score range: 1 to 19) had an estimated 10-year HCC risk of over 90%; those with 4 points or less had an estimated risk of less than 0.1%.Conclusion. We developed a simple 10-year risk prediction model for HCC in the Japanese general population as a public education tool. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.