Dengue epidemics in the Caribbean-temperature indices to gauge the potential for onset of dengue
Dengue epidemics in the Caribbean-temperature indices to gauge the potential for onset of dengue
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11027-007-9114-5
复制
发表时间：
2008-05-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Stennett, Roxann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amarakoon, Dharmaratne;Chen, Anthony;Stennett, Roxann
通过分析报告病例的年度和月度变化以及气候参数（温度和降水）的变化，研究了加勒比地区报告登革热病例的季节性、模式和气候关联。对特立尼达和托巴哥、巴巴多斯和牙买加给予了更多的关注，因为这些国家是报告病例的主要来源。这些数据是1980-2003年期间的。结果表明，过去十年（1990年代）加勒比登革热发病率高于前十年（1980年代）。登革热的年度模式表现出明确的季节性。流行病似乎发生在下半年开始降雨和气温上升之后。分析表明，流行病与温度的联系更强，特别是与登革热的发病有关，在厄尔尼诺期间流行病的可能性很高。在较温暖的年份，流行病似乎发生得较早，这是一种更可能发生在厄尔尼诺之后的一年（厄尔尼诺+ 1年）的情况。研究了与温度有关的指数，这些指数有助于衡量登革热发病的可能性。基于移动平均温度的指数似乎能有效地衡量这种潜力，而其平均值（AMAT）则表示阈值效应。MAT指数在适应和减缓战略中具有潜在的用途。
The seasonality, patterns and the climate associations of the reported cases of dengue in the Caribbean were studied by analyzing the annual and monthly variability of reported cases as well as those of climate parameters (temperature and precipitation). More attention was given to Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Jamaica, as those countries contributed mostly to the reported cases. The data were for the period 1980-2003. Results showed that the incidence of dengue in the Caribbean were higher in the last decade (1990s) compared to that in the previous decade (1980s). The yearly patterns of dengue exhibited a well-defined seasonality. The epidemics appeared to occur in the later half of the year following onset of rainfall and increasing temperature. Analysis revealed that the association of the epidemics with temperature was stronger, especially in relation to the onset of dengue, and the probability of epidemics was high during El Nino periods. In years with early warmer periods epidemics appeared to occur early, which was a scenario more probable in the year after an El Nino (an El Nino + 1 year). Indices linked to temperatures that are useful for gauging the potential for onset of dengue were examined. An index based on a moving average temperature (MAT) appeared to be effective in gauging such potential and its average (AMAT) signals a threshold effect. MAT index has potential use in adaptation and mitigation strategies.