A semi‐analytical approach for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures
A semi‐analytical approach for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.10896
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发表时间：
2016-09
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Bo Wang;Yun-liang Chen;Chao Wu;Jianhua Dong;Xiao Ma;Jiajun Song
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bo Wang;Yun-liang Chen;Chao Wu;Jianhua Dong;Xiao Ma;Jiajun Song
本文提出了一种梯形河道溃坝洪水的解析解，并给出了详细的求解过程。在此基础上，利用27个历史溃坝数据，建立了堤防溃坝洪峰流量预测方法。通过与其他14种直接估计峰值流量的方程进行比较，证明了该方法的预测性能。该模型预测峰值流量的不确定性小，确定系数高，标准误差小，在本文考虑的15种方法中排名前四。所提出的模型的稳健性和预测能力在两个案例研究中得到进一步证明，这两个案例都在其他研究者之前的分析中得到了考虑。该方法为工程师预测峰值放电提供了一种简单、透明的工具，易于实现试错计算。版权所有©2016 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd。
This study presents an analytical solution of dam‐break floods in a trapezoidal channel with detailed solution procedure. An approach predicting the peak discharge of floods caused by embankment dam failures was derived from the aforementioned analytical solution with a database of 27 historical dam failures. The prediction performance of this approach has been proved by comparing with other 14 straightforward equations for estimating the peak discharge. The proposed model with a small uncertainty of predicted peak flow rates has a high coefficient of determination and a small standard error, being ranked in the top four of the 15 methods considered in this paper. The robustness and predictive capability of the proposed model are further demonstrated in two case studies, and both were considered in the previous analyses performed by other investigators. This method provides a simple and transparent tool for engineers to predict the peak discharge and is easy to implement for trial and error calculation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.