Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures
Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures
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DOI：
10.1038/s41562-020-0896-8
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发表时间：
2020-06-03
影响因子：
29.9
通讯作者：
Gong, Peng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guan, Dabo;Wang, Daoping;Gong, Peng
各国通过严格限制旅行和面对面的商业活动，试图阻止2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的传播。在这里，我们使用最新的全球贸易建模框架分析了一组理想化封锁情景的供应链效应。我们发现，与最初COVID-19封锁相关的供应链损失在很大程度上取决于实施限制的国家数量，而损失对封锁的持续时间比其严格程度更敏感。然而，一个可以根除疾病的较长的遏制措施比较短的遏制措施造成的损失更小。更早、更严格和更短的封锁可以最大限度地减少整体损失。采取“慢慢来”的方式解除限制，如果避免了进一步封锁的需要，可能会减少总体损失。无论采取何种策略，全球供应链的复杂性将扩大COVID-19直接影响以外的损失。因此，疫情控制是一项公共产品，需要集体努力，并支持能力较低的国家。Guan等人分析了COVID-19限制对全球供应链的影响。更早、更严格和更短的封锁可以最大限度地减少整体损失。采取“慢慢来”的方式解除限制，如果避免了进一步封锁的需要，可能会减少总体损失。
Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.Guan et al. analyse the impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on global supply chains. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns.