A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow
A two-parameter climate elasticity of streamflow index to assess climate change effects on annual streamflow
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DOI：
10.1029/2007wr005890
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发表时间：
2007-11-24
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Chiew, Francis H. S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Guobin;Charles, Stephen P.;Chiew, Francis H. S.
为了评价气候对年径流量的影响，将径流指数的单参数降水弹性扩展为双参数气候弹性指数，作为降水和温度的函数。对两个流域的应用表明，单参数降水弹性指数在某些情况下可以反映降雨与径流之间的一般关系，但不能反映径流、降水和温度之间复杂的非线性关系。例如，对于斯波坎河流域，由于气温比长期平均值低1摄氏度到高1.8摄氏度，降水量增加20%，径流指数的气候弹性从2.4到0.2不等。因此，如果气温比长期平均值低1摄氏度，降水量增加20%可能会导致径流量增加48%，但如果温度比长期平均值高1.8摄氏度，则仅增加4%。该方法可应用于其他流域，评估气候变化对年径流的潜在影响。这两个案例研究的结果可以为考虑到全球变化情景的长期流域水管理战略的规划提供信息。
This study extends the single parameter precipitation elasticity of streamflow index into a two parameter climate elasticity index, as a function of both precipitation and temperature, in order to assess climatic effects on annual streamflow. Application of the proposed index to two basins indicates that the single parameter precipitation elasticity index may give a general relationship between precipitation and streamflow in some cases, but that it cannot reflect the complicated non-linear relationship among streamflow, precipitation and temperature. For example, for the Spokane River basin the climate elasticity of streamflow index varies from 2.4 to 0.2, for a precipitation increase of 20%, as temperature varies from 1 degrees C lower to 1.8 degrees C higher than the long term mean. Thus a 20% precipitation increase may result in a streamflow increase of 48% if the temperature is 1 degrees C lower but only a 4% increase if the temperature is 1.8 degrees C higher than the long-term mean. The proposed method can be applied to other basins to assess potential climate change effects on annual streamflow. The results of the two case studies can inform planning of long-term basin water management strategies taking into account global change scenarios.