Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States
Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2648
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发表时间：
2015-08-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Chester, Mikhail V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bartos, Matthew D.;Chester, Mikhail V.
气候变化可能会增加极端高温和干旱事件的发生率，从而限制未来的发电能力。我们根据水流、气温、水温、湿度和空气密度的长期变化估计美国西部发电能力的减少。在接下来的半个世纪里，我们通过将缩小尺度的气候强迫与水文模拟系统相结合来模拟这些关键参数。对于脆弱的发电站(占现有发电量的46%)，气候变化可能会使平均夏季发电量减少1.1-3.0%，在十年干旱的情况下，最高可减少7.2-8.8%。目前，电力供应商在其发展计划中没有考虑气候影响，这意味着他们可能高估了自己满足未来电力需求的能力。
Climate change may constrain future electricity generation capacity by increasing the incidence of extreme heat and drought events. We estimate reductions to generating capacity in the Western United States based on long-term changes in streamflow, air temperature, water temperature, humidity and air density. We simulate these key parameters over the next half-century by joining downscaled climate forcings with a hydrologic modelling system. For vulnerable power stations (46% of existing capacity), climate change may reduce average summertime generating capacity by 1.1-3.0%, with reductions of up to 7.2-8.8% under a ten-year drought. At present, power providers do not account for climate impacts in their development plans, meaning that they could be overestimating their ability to meet future electricity needs.