Volatility and Regional Growth in Europe: Does Space Matter?
Volatility and Regional Growth in Europe: Does Space Matter?
复制标题
欧洲的波动性和区域增长：空间重要吗？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
V. Ríos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Roberto Ezcurra;V. Ríos
摘要本文考察了欧洲产出波动与区域经济增长之间的关系。为此，我们提出了一个空间增强的随机增长模型与技术的相互依赖的经济。空间外部性被用来模拟技术的相互依赖性，这最终意味着，一个特定区域的经济增长率不仅受到其自身的波动程度，而且还受到其他区域的产出波动的影响。为了研究这一结果的实证有效性，我们使用空间计量经济学技术研究了1991-2011年期间272个欧洲地区样本的波动性和经济增长之间的联系。我们的估计表明，在欧洲地区的波动性和经济表现之间存在着负面的和统计上显着的关系。这部分是由于邻近区域的波动引起的空间溢出效应所发挥的作用。所观察到的关系是稳健的，在分析中包括不同的解释变量，可能会影响区域增长和商业周期波动。我们还检查，我们的结果不依赖于分析中使用的措施或波动性或计量经济学规范，以捕捉空间溢出的性质。
Abstract This paper examines the relationship between output volatility and regional growth in Europe. To that end, we present a spatially augmented stochastic growth model with technological interdependence among economies. Spatial externalities are used to model technological interdependence, which ultimately implies that the economic growth rate of a particular region is affected not only by its own degree of volatility but also by the output fluctuations experienced by the remaining regions. In order to investigate the empirical validity of this result, we examine the link between volatility and economic growth in a sample of 272 European regions over the period 1991–2011 using spatial econometric techniques. Our estimates show the existence of a negative and statistically significant relationship between volatility and economic performance in the European regions. This is partly due to the role played by spatial spillovers induced by volatility in neighbouring regions. The observed relationship is robust to the inclusion in the analysis of different explanatory variables that may affect both regional growth and business cycle fluctuations. We also check that our results do not depend on the measure or volatility used in the analysis or the econometric specification employed to capture the nature of spatial spillovers.