The No Alternatives Argument
The No Alternatives Argument
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没有其他选择的论点
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
J. Sprenger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Dawid;S. Hartmann;J. Sprenger
科学理论很难找到，一旦科学家找到了一个理论H，他们往往认为没有多少明显的替代H。但这种信念有道理吗？科学家应该相信H的替代物的数量，以及他们应该如何根据新的证据改变这些信念？这些是我们将在本文中解决的一些问题。我们还问在什么条件下没有找到H的替代物证实了所讨论的理论。这种推理（我们称之为“没有替代论证”）在科学中经常使用，因此值得进行仔细的哲学分析。1引言2概念框架3无替代论证4讨论I：无替代论证的定量分析5讨论II：替代数量和未充分确定问题6结论附录A附录B 1引言2概念框架3无替代论证4讨论I：无替代论证的定量分析5讨论II：替代数量和未充分确定问题6结论附录A附录B附录A附录B
Scientific theories are hard to find, and once scientists have found a theory, H, they often believe that there are not many distinct alternatives to H. But is this belief justified? What should scientists believe about the number of alternatives to H, and how should they change these beliefs in the light of new evidence? These are some of the questions that we will address in this article. We also ask under which conditions failure to find an alternative to H confirms the theory in question. This kind of reasoning (which we call the ‘no alternatives argument’) is frequently used in science and therefore deserves a careful philosophical analysis. 1 Introduction 2 The Conceptual Framework 3 The No Alternatives Argument 4 Discussion I: A Quantitative Analysis of the No Alternatives Argument 5 Discussion II: The Number of Alternatives and the Problem of Underdetermination 6 Conclusions Appendix A Appendix B 1 Introduction 2 The Conceptual Framework 3 The No Alternatives Argument 4 Discussion I: A Quantitative Analysis of the No Alternatives Argument 5 Discussion II: The Number of Alternatives and the Problem of Underdetermination 6 Conclusions Appendix A Appendix B Appendix A Appendix B