Robust Optimal Trajectory Planning Under Uncertain Winds and Convective Risk
Robust Optimal Trajectory Planning Under Uncertain Winds and Convective Risk
复制标题
不确定风和对流风险下的鲁棒最优轨迹规划
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Simarro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. González;M. Soler;M. Sanjurjo;J. García;D. Sacher;Ulrike Gelhardt;J. Lang;T. Hauf;J. Simarro
轨迹预测所需的模型和系统中存在显着的不确定性，这对基于轨迹的操作概念来说是一个重大挑战。天气可以被视为最相关的不确定性来源之一。为了提高 ATM 系统的可预测性，有必要了解和管理这些不确定性的影响。我们提出了稳健轨迹规划的初步结果，其中假设天气是不确定性的唯一来源。采用集合预测系统最先进的概率预测来描述风和潜在对流区域的不确定性。提出了一种鲁棒的最优控制方法，可以在存在这些不确定性的情况下产生有效且可预测的轨迹。针对可预测性、对流风险和平均效率之间的不同偏好，获得一组帕累托最优轨迹。
The existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction represents a major challenge for the Trajectory-Based Operations concept. Weather can be considered as one of the most relevant sources of uncertainty. Understanding and managing the impact of these uncertainties are necessary in order to increase the predictability of the ATM system. We present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning in which weather is assumed to be the unique source of uncertainty. State-of-the-art probabilistic forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are employed to characterize uncertainty in the wind and potential convective areas. A robust optimal control methodology to produce efficient and predictable trajectories in the presence of these uncertainties is presented. A set of Pareto-optimal trajectories is obtained for different preferences between predictability, convective risk, and average efficiency.