Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate
Atmospheric and oceanic contributions to irreducible forecast uncertainty of Arctic surface climate
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-15-0421.1
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
S. Tietsche;E. Hawkins;J. Day
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Tietsche;E. Hawkins;J. Day
北极季节到年际预报的模式误差和初始状态不确定性引起的不确定性已在文献中得到广泛讨论，而气候系统的混沌性引起的不可约预报不确定性（IFU）则较少受到关注。然而，IFU提供了重要的见解，通过可预测性丢失的机制，因此可以告知模型开发和观测部署的优先级。在这里，作者通过分析一组理想化的集合预测实验，描述了内部海洋和表面大气热通量如何对地球系统模型中北极海冰和上层海洋热含量的IFU做出贡献。据发现，大气和海洋热通量往往是同样重要的驱动不可预测的北极范围内的海冰和地表水温度的变化，因此同样有助于IFU。大气表面热通量往往占主导地位的北极范围内的变化的前置时间…
AbstractUncertainty of Arctic seasonal to interannual predictions arising from model errors and initial state uncertainty has been widely discussed in the literature, whereas the irreducible forecast uncertainty (IFU) arising from the chaoticity of the climate system has received less attention. However, IFU provides important insights into the mechanisms through which predictability is lost and hence can inform prioritization of model development and observations deployment. Here, the authors characterize how internal oceanic and surface atmospheric heat fluxes contribute to the IFU of Arctic sea ice and upper-ocean heat content in an Earth system model by analyzing a set of idealized ensemble prediction experiments. It is found that atmospheric and oceanic heat flux are often equally important for driving unpredictable Arctic-wide changes in sea ice and surface water temperatures and hence contribute equally to IFU. Atmospheric surface heat flux tends to dominate Arctic-wide changes for lead times of up...