Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs
Agent-based Bayesian approach to monitoring the progress of invasive species eradication programs
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1216146110
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发表时间：
2013-08-13
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Spring, Daniel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keith, Jonathan M.;Spring, Daniel
根除入侵物种可以带来显著的环境、经济和社会效益，但根除计划往往失败。持续和仔细的监测提高了成功的机会，但即使入侵的数量或空间范围正在扩大，入侵的可能性似乎也在下降。确定入侵是否在下降是一个具有挑战性的推断问题，原因有两个。首先，由于费用高，定期调查整个疫区通常是不可行的。其次，监控方法不完善，未能发现一些个人。这两个因素也使人们很难确定根除计划失败的原因。基于代理的方法能够对未被发现的个体随时间的位置做出推断，以确定入侵者丰度和空间范围的趋势。我们开发了一种基于主体的贝叶斯方法，并将其应用于澳大利亚最大的根除计划：从布里斯班根除进口红火蚁(Solenopsis Invicta)的行动。2004年，入侵被认为几乎被根除，但我们的分析表明，尽管巢穴数量急剧下降，但其地理范围仍在继续扩大。我们还表明，如果搜索和治疗的区域相对较小的增加，就可能实现根除。我们的结果证明了推断时间和空间趋势在持续入侵中的重要性。该方法可以处理不完整的观测，并考虑了人为干预的影响。它有可能改变根除做法。
Eradication of an invasive species can provide significant environmental, economic, and social benefits, but eradication programs often fail. Constant and careful monitoring improves the chance of success, but an invasion may seem to be in decline even when it is expanding in abundance or spatial extent. Determining whether an invasion is in decline is a challenging inference problem for two reasons. First, it is typically infeasible to regularly survey the entire infested region owing to high cost. Second, surveillance methods are imperfect and fail to detect some individuals. These two factors also make it difficult to determine why an eradication program is failing. Agent-based methods enable inferences to be made about the locations of undiscovered individuals over time to identify trends in invader abundance and spatial extent. We develop an agent-based Bayesian method and apply it to Australia's largest eradication program: the campaign to eradicate the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) from Brisbane. The invasion was deemed to be almost eradicated in 2004 but our analyses indicate that its geographic range continued to expand despite a sharp decline in number of nests. We also show that eradication would probably have been achieved with a relatively small increase in the area searched and treated. Our results demonstrate the importance of inferring temporal and spatial trends in ongoing invasions. The method can handle incomplete observations and takes into account the effects of human intervention. It has the potential to transform eradication practices.