The limits of modifying migration speed to adjust to climate change
The limits of modifying migration speed to adjust to climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3336
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发表时间：
2017-07
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Heiko Schmaljohann;C. Both
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Heiko Schmaljohann;C. Both
预测生物体适应环境变化的变异范围是生态学的一个主要挑战。候鸟就是一个例子，它们在整个年度周期中在不同的栖息地经历变化。早期的研究表明，欧洲种群趋势在迁徙物种中下降最快，春季到达时间的调整最少。因此，在季节性繁殖区与其他营养水平的日益不匹配，可能有助于他们的大规模下降。在这里，我们通过回顾49项跟踪研究，量化了通过修改迁徙速度来调整春季到来日期的潜在范围。迁移速度的个体间差异主要取决于相对较短的停留时间。假设这种群体反应反映了个体的表型可塑性，我们计算了表型可塑性通过减少停留时间来加速迁移的潜力。即使减少50%也只会导致提前两天到达，考虑到春季旅程最后2,000公里的调整。因此，与以前的研究相反，移民持续时间的主要决定因素的灵活性似乎不足以适应正在发生的气候变化，也不太可能解释观察到的长途移民抵达的一些进展。
Predicting the range of variation over which organisms can adjust to environmental change is a major challenge in ecology,. This is exemplified in migratory birds which experience changes in different habitats throughout the annual cycle. Earlier studies showed European population trends declining strongest in migrant species with least adjustment in spring arrival time,. Thus, the increasing mismatches with other trophic levels in seasonal breeding areas,probably contribute to their large-scale decline. Here we quantify the potential range of adjusting spring arrival dates through modifying migration speeds by reviewing 49 tracking studies. Among-individual variation in migration speed was mainly determined by the relatively short stop-over duration. Assuming this population response reflects individual phenotypic plasticity, we calculated the potential for phenotypic plasticity to speed-up migration by reducing stop-over duration. Even a 50% reduction would lead to a mere two-day advance in arrival, considering adjustments on the final 2,000 km of the spring journey. Hence, in contrast to previous studies,,, flexibility in the major determinant of migration duration seems insufficient to adjust to ongoing climate change, and is unlikely to explain some of the observed arrival advancements in long-distance migrants.