Spatial and temporal variability of the abrupt interannual temperature change and warming hiatus in China, 1951-2016
Spatial and temporal variability of the abrupt interannual temperature change and warming hiatus in China, 1951-2016
复制标题
1951-2016年中国气温突变和变暖中断的时空变化
DOI：
10.1002/met.1911
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Qiao Zixu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang Xing;Ma Long;Liu Tingxi;Sun Bolin;Zhou Ying;Yang Chen;Qiao Zixu
气温突变(ATC)和气候变暖(WH)现象影响着全球资源和环境。然而，关于大区域、大时间尺度和密集分布站点的ATC和WH的时空变异性的信息却很少。利用1951年至2016年中国全市622个气象站的平均最低气温、平均气温和平均最高气温资料，利用Mann-Kendall检验方法，揭示了青藏高原地区大气环流和水汽事件发生时间的时空变异性以及事件前后的特征。在中国的大部分地区，这三个温度参数都出现了ATC，并且这种变化发生的时间较晚，出现在低纬地区。平均最低气温的ATC出现的时间早于平均气温的ATC，而平均最高气温的ATC出现的最晚。在ATC之后，经历了气温升高的大多数站点出现了WH，而经历了气温下降的站点则没有出现冷却间歇(CH)。降温区集中在中国南部丘陵平原和亚热带热带季风气候带。平均气温的WH出现在平均最高气温之前，平均最高气温出现在平均最低气温之前。总体而言，世界卫生组织自东向西开始较晚，主要集中在1998年和2007年左右。青藏高原地区的ATC和WH均表现出滞后现象。空转周期在3~27 年之间，且越早越长。在ATC之前，三个温度参数都略有增加。平均最低气温上升快于平均气温，平均最高气温上升最慢。此外，从东南到西北，变化更加剧烈。ATC后，大部分地区气温迅速升高，且升温速率随纬度的降低而增大。平均最高气温在100°E以东、30°N以南地区呈下降趋势，平均最低气温和平均气温的上升速率与绝对平均最高气温的下降速率相当，比ATC前增加3~5倍，但变化不大。在ATC之后，气温下降的站点没有出现CH，而气温上升的站点大部分在一定时间后出现了WH。而且，这种情况在纬度上是不同的。将夏季降温后与降温前后、降温前的气温进行比较，结果表明，夏季降温前后气温变化不大。白云发生8~10 年后，中国北部少数台站气温再次回升，但由于时间序列较短，无法确定白云是否真的结束了。研究成果丰富了气候变化研究成果，为解决资源环境问题提供了参考。
The abrupt temperature change (ATC) and warming hiatus (WH) phenomena impact global resources and the environment. However, information on the spatial and temporal variability in the ATC and WH over large regions, long time scales and densely distributed stations is lacking. In the study, based on average minimum, average and average maximum temperatures data from 1951 to 2016 from 622 meteorological stations in China, the spatial and temporal variability in the timing of the ATC and WH events and the characteristics before and after these events were revealed by using the Mann–Kendall test. In most areas of China, an ATC occurred in the three temperature parameters, and the onset of the changes occurred later at lower latitudes. The ATC in the average minimum temperature occurred earlier than that in the average temperature, and the ATC in the average maximum temperature occurred the latest. After the ATC, a WH occurred at most of the stations that experienced an increase in temperature, whereas a cooling hiatus (CH) did not occur at stations that experienced a decrease in temperature. The regions with decreasing temperatures were concentrated in the hilly and plain areas of southern China and in subtropical and tropical monsoon climate zones. The WH of the average temperature occurred earlier than that of the average maximum temperature, which occurred earlier than that of the average minimum temperature. Overall, the WH began later from east to west and was mainly concentrated in approximately 1998 and 2007. Both the ATC and the WH in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau area showed hysteresis. The ATC to WH period was between three and 27 years, and the earlier the ATC was, the longer was the period. Before the ATC, all three temperature parameters increased slightly. The average minimum temperature rose faster than the average temperature, and the average maximum temperature rose the slowest. Furthermore, the variation became more dramatic from southeast to northwest. After the ATC, the temperatures in most areas increased rapidly, and the rate of temperature increase increased with decreasing latitude. The average maximum temperature decreased in the area east of 100° E and south of 30° N. In this area, the rates of temperature increase for the average minimum and average temperatures were on a par with the rate of decrease in the absolute average maximum temperature, with the rates being three to five times greater than those before the ATC, but without dramatic variations. After the ATC, a CH did not occur at the stations where the temperature had decreased, whereas a WH occurred after a certain period of time at most of the stations where the temperature had increased. Moreover, such occurrences differed with latitude. A comparison of the temperature after the WH with that both before and after the ATC but before the WH revealed that the temperature did not vary dramatically. Eight to 10 years after the WH, the temperatures at a small number of stations in northern China rose again; however, due to the short length of the time series, it is impossible to determine whether the WH had truly ended. The results of the study enrich the findings of climate change research and provide a reference for addressing resource and environmental issues.