Uncertainties in Water Resources System and Risk Analysis Method
Uncertainties in Water Resources System and Risk Analysis Method
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
Zuo Qi-ting
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作者：
Zuo Qi-ting
当前水资源系统研究的关键问题之一是如何量化不确定性，这是每一个水资源系统所固有的。不确定性是水文和水资源风险的根源。本文综合归纳了水资源系统中的不确定性类型，如随机、模糊、灰色和不确定性，提出了水资源不确定系统的概念。从不确定性因素的数学过程出发，介绍了基于概率论（涉及随机领域）的风险分析模型，提出了基于模糊隶属度（涉及模糊领域）、灰色数（涉及灰色领域）和未确知数学（涉及不确定性领域）的风险分析新模型。为水资源风险规划和管理奠定了基础。
One of the key problems in water resources system research today is how to quantify uncertainty, which is inherent in every water resources system. Uncertainties are the origin of risk in hydrology and water resources. In this paper, the types of uncertainties in water resources system are comprehensively concluded, such as random, fuzzy, grey and unascertainty, and the concept of uncertain system of water resources is puts forward. From the points of mathematical proceeding of uncertainty factors, the risk analysis model based on probability theory (related to the field of random) is introduced, and new risk analysis models based on fuzzy subordinative degree (related to the field of fuzzy), grey number (related to the field of grey) and unascertained mathematics (related to the field of unascertainty) are put forward. It lay a foundation for risk planning and management of water resources.