High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate.
High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-017-00275-3
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发表时间：
2017-07-24
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Belcher SE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thompson V;Dunstone NJ;Scaife AA;Smith DM;Slingo JM;Brown S;Belcher SE
2013/2014 年冬季，一系列风暴袭击了英国，导致包括英格兰东南部在内的许多地区出现创纪录的降雨量和洪水。泰晤士河谷发生大面积洪水，清理费用超过 10 亿英镑。这种水平的降雨量还没有观测到的先例。在这里，我们对大量高分辨率初始化气候模拟进行了分析，以表明这一事件是可以预见的，并且在当前气候下，英国许多地区仍有很大机会超过观测到的月降雨量总量记录。在英格兰东南部，任何冬季至少有一个月的降雨量有 7% 的可能性超过当前的降雨量记录。将我们的分析扩展到英格兰和威尔士的其他一些地区，每年冬天某个地方打破地区纪录的可能性会增加到 34%。 2013 年至 2014 年冬季的一系列风暴导致英国出现创纪录的洪水。在这里，作者使用高分辨率气候模拟来表明，这一事件是可以预见的，并且英国许多地区仍有很大可能超过观测到的月降雨总量记录。
In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter. A succession of storms during the 2013–2014 winter led to record flooding in the UK. Here, the authors use high-resolution climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated and that there remains a high chance of exceeding observed record monthly rainfall totals in many parts of the UK.
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