Eutrophication in peel inlet—I. The problem-defining behavior and a mathematical model for the phosphorus scenario
Eutrophication in peel inlet—I. The problem-defining behavior and a mathematical model for the phosphorus scenario
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DOI：
10.1016/0043-1354(80)90039-1
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发表时间：
1980
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
G. Hornberger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Hornberger
由于缺乏数据，在对环境问题进行研究的早期阶段利用数学模型通常是不可行的，因为对环境问题的原因知之甚少。然而，如果感兴趣的问题与文献中报道的其他问题大体相似，则可以获得相当数量的适用信息，如果是这样，则可以通过优先统计分布来指定模拟模型的参数。然后，可以利用蒙特卡罗实验来检查模型是否能够模拟问题定义行为的突出定性方面。这种方法的最终目标是确定系统知识中的关键不确定性领域，从而获得可能有助于下一阶段研究重点的信息。在皮尔湾，西澳大利亚州，感兴趣的系统行为是藻类刚毛藻的过度增长的文化富营养化的问题，是适合这样的治疗。磷为基础的模型提供了一个可行的解释，这种滋扰藻类问题。
The utilization of a mathematical model at an early stage of research on an environmental problem, the causes of which are poorly understood, is usually infeasible because of a lack of data. If the problem of interest is generically similar to others that have been reported in the literature however, a considerable amount of applicable information may be available and, if so, the parameters of a simulation model may be specified viaa prioristatistical distributions. Monte Carlo experiments can then be utilized to examine whether the model is able to simulate the salient qualitative aspects of the problem-defining behavior. The ultimate objective of such an approach is to identify areas of critical uncertainty in knowledge of the system and thereby to derive information that may be useful in focusing the next phase of research. The problem of cultural eutrophication in Peel Inlet, Western Australia, where the system behavior of interest is the excessive growth of the algaCladophora, is amenable to such treatment. A phosphorus-based model provides one feasible explanation of this nuisance algal problem.