North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks
North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112046
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发表时间：
2021-02-03
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Molar-Cruz, Anahi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Maxwell;Siddiqui, Sauleh;Molar-Cruz, Anahi
截至2020年，北美天然气开采和电力部门的使用都达到了历史最高水平。北美对天然气的依赖增加，加上天然气市场可能受到破坏，这对能源安全产生了若干影响。此外，对经济弹性感兴趣的政策制定者将发现这项研究的结果有助于为能源部门的长期规划和投资决策提供信息。本文评估了电力和天然气行业如何在不同的系统配置下应对假设的天然气价格冲击。我们根据可再生能源发电授权或可再生能源容量成本变化导致的参考和替代配置，对不可预见的天然气价格冲击进行了调整。从几个不同的模型的结果分别为加拿大，墨西哥和美国的电力和天然气行业。一般来说，由于高（低）天然气价格冲击，美国变得越来越依赖从加拿大进口的电力，但增加（减少）对墨西哥的出口。可再生能源的授权被证明可以缓冲高价格冲击下的电价上涨，但由于利用低价天然气的灵活性较小，低价格冲击下的价格下降受到抑制。美国被证明减少天然气产量和净出口，天然气价格高冲击，因为需求减少。
As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' longterm planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is demonstrated to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.