Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study.
Transmission roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases: a modelling study.
复制标题
有症状和无症状 COVID-19 病例的传播作用：建模研究
DOI：
10.1017/s0950268822001467
复制
发表时间：
2022-09-27
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Huang, Hui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tan, Jianbin;Ge, Yang;Martinez, Leonardo;Sun, Jimin;Li, Changwei;Westbrook, Adrianna;Chen, Enfu;Pan, Jinren;Li, Yang;Cheng, Wei;Ling, Feng;Chen, Zhiping;Shen, Ye;Huang, Hui
冠状病毒病2019(新冠肺炎)无症状病例很难识别，阻碍了传播性估计。在进一步的模型研究中，对于关键假设，新冠肺炎的传播率的价值值得进一步阐明。通过以人群为基础的监测网络，我们收集了1342例确诊病例的数据，并对所有无症状病例进行了90天的随访。为估计有症状和无症状新冠肺炎病例的可传播性，建立了包含联系信息的年龄分层分区模型。有症状和无症状病例的传播性差异取决于年龄，在中年组最为明显。无症状病例的传播率比有症状病例低66.7%，漏检率为74.1%(95%可信区间为65.9~80.7)。无症状病例的平均比例为28.2%(95%可信区间23.0~34.6)。模拟表明，随着疫情的继续，无症状传播的负担增加，并可能主导整个传播。无症状新冠肺炎病例的传播率很高，无症状新冠肺炎病例在疫情中发挥着重要作用。
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) asymptomatic cases are hard to identify, impeding transmissibility estimation. The value of COVID-19 transmissibility is worth further elucidation for key assumptions in further modelling studies. Through a population-based surveillance network, we collected data on 1342 confirmed cases with a 90-days follow-up for all asymptomatic cases. An age-stratified compartmental model containing contact information was built to estimate the transmissibility of symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases. The difference in transmissibility of a symptomatic and asymptomatic case depended on age and was most distinct for the middle-age groups. The asymptomatic cases had a 66.7% lower transmissibility rate than symptomatic cases, and 74.1% (95% CI 65.9–80.7) of all asymptomatic cases were missed in detection. The average proportion of asymptomatic cases was 28.2% (95% CI 23.0–34.6). Simulation demonstrated that the burden of asymptomatic transmission increased as the epidemic continued and could potentially dominate total transmission. The transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases is high and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases play a significant role in outbreaks.