Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana
Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1517456113
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发表时间：
2016-05-17
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Schmitt, Johanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fournier-Level, Alexandre;Perry, Emily O.;Schmitt, Johanna
预测种群是否以及如何适应快速的气候变化是进化生物学的一个关键目标。为了研究适应性的遗传基础，并预测适应性进化的新气候与季节变化，我们生长了一个多样化的面板的一年生植物拟南芥（多亲先进的一代互交线）在受控条件下模拟四种气候：一个现今的参考气候，温度升高的气候，冬季变暖的气候，和一个向极迁移的气候增加光周期振幅。在每种气候中，四个连续的季节性队列经历了一年的动态日温度和光周期变化。我们测量了12个性状，并开发了一个基因组预测模型，在每个季节性环境中的健身进化。这个模型被用来模拟进化轨迹的基础人口超过50年，在每种气候，以及100年的逐步气候变化的情景适应参考气候。塑料和进化适应性反应的模式因季节和气候而异。温度升高的气候促进了亚种群的遗传分化，而在冬季变暖和向极迁移的气候，季节性遗传分化减少。与适应性对季节性气候变化的可塑性反应相比，计算机模拟的“复活实验”显示了有限的进化拯救。适应的遗传基础，因此，进化变化的动力在不同的情景中有质的不同。人口较少的创始基因型和人口的遗传多样性减少事先选择适应新的条件不太好，表明适应快速气候变化需要维持足够的常设变异。
Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.