Policy impact analysis in competitive agricultural markets: a real options approach
Policy impact analysis in competitive agricultural markets: a real options approach
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DOI：
10.1093/erae/jbs033
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发表时间：
2013-09
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Jan‐Henning Feil;O. Musshoff;A. Balmann
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jan‐Henning Feil;O. Musshoff;A. Balmann
由于总体经济状况的强烈变化，农业部门的调整是可以预期的。然而，到目前为止，在动态-随机背景下对农业投资的政策影响分析很少。本文的目的是开发一个实物期权市场模型，该模型允许对不同的政治方案进行影响评估。该模型将遗传算法和随机模拟相结合。模型的模拟表明，投资补贴和生产上限比底价更可取，因为在给定的投资意愿刺激下，福利减少较少。，牛津大学出版社。
In consequence of strong changes in general economic conditions, adjustments in the agricultural sector can be expected. To date, however, there are only few policy impact analyses on agricultural investments in a dynamic-stochastic context. The objective of this paper is to develop a real options market model which allows the impact assessment of different political schemes. The model combines genetic algorithms and stochastic simulation. Simulations of the model show that investment subsidies and production ceilings are preferable to price floors because the welfare is less reduced for a given stimulation of the willingness to invest. , Oxford University Press.