Forecasting number of ISO 14001 certifications of selected countries: application of even GM (1,1), DGM, and NDGM models
Forecasting number of ISO 14001 certifications of selected countries: application of even GM (1,1), DGM, and NDGM models
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s11356-019-04534-2
复制
发表时间：
2019-04-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Mohsin, Muhammad
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ikram, Muhammad;Mahmoudi, Amin;Mohsin, Muhammad
ISO 14001的适应性被认为是环境可持续性和全球竞争优势的最有用工具之一;然而，ISO 14001认证的未来面临着一些不确定性，因为它在各国的接受程度不一。这些不确定因素如果管理不当，可能会阻碍这些国家实施企业管理制度。为了指导决策者更好地管理未来的ISO 14001认证，本研究旨在通过先进的数学建模，即灰色模型，甚至GM（1，1），离散GM（1，1），非齐次离散灰色模型（NDGM）。上述模型的好处是确保了使用小样本和不良信息进行评估的准确性。此外，目前的研究是使用合成相对增长率和合成倍增时间模型进行认证增长分析的先驱。最后，实证分析表明，到2026年，中国在ISO 14001认证方面一直处于领先地位，发展中国家的表现令人瞩目。最后，本文还对如何使环境更可持续发展提出了一些建议.
The adaptability of ISO 14001 is considered as one of the most useful tools for environmental sustainability and worldwide competitive advantage; however, the future of ISO 14001 certification faces some uncertainties because of its uneven acceptance in various countries. These uncertainties, if not properly managed, can hinder the implementation of business management systems in these countries. In order to guide policymakers in better management of ISO 14001 in future with certainty, this study aims to forecast the ISO 14001 certifications for 10years for China, India, the USA, Italy, Japan, and Germany, the top six certified countries, through advanced mathematical modeling, namely grey models, even GM (1,1), discrete GM (1,1), and non-homogenous discrete grey model (NDGM). The benefits of mentioned models are ensured accuracy in assessment using small samples and poor information. Moreover, current research is a pioneer in the certifications growth analysis using the Synthetic Relative Growth Rate and Synthetic Doubling Time models. Finally, the empirical analysis indicated that China is constantly leading in terms of its ISO 14001 certifications till 2026 and the performance of developing countries was spectacular. Furthermore, the article has proposed some suggestions for the policymakers to make the environment more sustainable.