Exploring specific predictors of psychosis onset over a 2-year period: A decision-tree model
Exploring specific predictors of psychosis onset over a 2-year period: A decision-tree model
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DOI：
10.1111/eip.13175
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发表时间：
2021-05-15
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
ten Velden Hegelstad, Wenche
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bjornestad, Jone;Tjora, Tore;ten Velden Hegelstad, Wenche
目的探讨精神病临床高危人群波动性症状转化预测模型。事实证明，使用机器学习探索特定症状在应对这一挑战方面卓有成效。本研究的目的是探索具体的预测因素，并产生理论假设的发病使用密切监测，机器学习approach.Methods研究参与者，N = 96，平均年龄16.55岁，男女比例46：54%，被招募的预防精神病研究在罗加兰，挪威。参与者在2年内的13个独立评估时间点使用精神病风险综合征结构化访谈（SIPS）进行评估，产生247个具体分数。机器学习决策树分析（i）检查了精神病转换的潜在SIPS预测因子和（ii）精神病转换的分级预测因子。结果247个特定SIPS症状评分中有4个显著：（i）基线时情绪表达减少，（ii）5个月时的情绪和自我体验，（iii）3个月时的知觉异常/幻觉和（iv）6个月时的概念丰富性。没有SIPS症状评分6个月后获得的后续predictedpsychiatrice.Conclusions研究结果表明，早期的阴性症状，特别是那些可观察到的同龄人，可以说是一个危险因素的社会排斥，精神病的预测。自我表达和社会行为可能被证明是早期干预精神病和精神病风险的相关切入点。在更大的样本和其他地点测试研究结果是必要的。
Aim The fluctuating symptoms of clinical high risk for psychosis hamper conversion prediction models. Exploring specific symptoms using machine-learning has proven fruitful in accommodating this challenge. The aim of this study is to explore specific predictors and generate atheoretical hypotheses of onset using a close-monitoring, machine-learning approach.Methods Study participants, N = 96, mean age 16.55 years, male to female ratio 46:54%, were recruited from the Prevention of Psychosis Study in Rogaland, Norway. Participants were assessed using the Structured Interview for Psychosis Risk Syndromes (SIPS) at 13 separate assessment time points across 2 years, yielding 247 specific scores. A machine-learning decision-tree analysis (i) examined potential SIPS predictors of psychosis conversion and (ii) hierarchically ranked predictors of psychosis conversion.Results Four out of 247 specific SIPS symptom scores were significant: (i) reduced expression of emotion at baseline, (ii) experience of emotions and self at 5 months, (iii) perceptual abnormalities/hallucinations at 3 months and (iv) ideational richness at 6 months. No SIPS symptom scores obtained after 6 months of follow-up predicted psychosis.Conclusions Study findings suggest that early negative symptoms, particularly those observable by peers and arguably a risk factor for social exclusion, were predictive of psychosis. Self-expression and social behaviour might prove relevant entry points for early intervention in psychosis and psychosis risk. Testing study results in larger samples and at other sites is warranted.