Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
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DOI：
10.1007/s12053-018-9710-0
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
F. Knobloch;H. Pollitt;U. Chewpreecha;V. Daioglou;J. Mercure
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Knobloch;H. Pollitt;U. Chewpreecha;V. Daioglou;J. Mercure
将全球变暖限制在1.5°C的整体经济情景表明，到2050年，建筑部门的直接碳排放量应该减少到几乎为零，但没有回答如何通过现实世界的政策实现这一目标的问题。我们模拟了哪些政策措施可以促使住宅供暖几乎完全脱碳，住宅供暖是迄今为止住宅建筑直接排放的最大来源。在哪些假设下是可能的，需要多长时间？我们使用非平衡自下而上模型FTT:Heat来模拟在惯性和有限理性背景下向低碳供暖过渡的政策，重点关注供暖系统的吸收。我们的研究结果表明，到2050年，接近零的脱碳是可以实现的，但需要大量的政策努力。我们发现，与作为唯一政策的居民碳税相比，政策组合在激励采用节能低碳技术方面更为有效。结合可再生能源的补贴和采购政策，几乎完全的脱碳可以通过每吨二氧化碳50-200欧元的税收来实现。如果没有额外政策的补充，碳税对总减排的边际影响会逐渐减弱，因此仍不足以实现深度脱碳。在所有情况下，供暖的脱碳将增加家庭最初面临的预计供暖成本，但在中期可能导致世界大多数地区的成本下降。我们表明，政策的潜在影响在很大程度上取决于家庭的行为决策，特别是在深度脱碳和快速转型的背景下。
Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We simulate which policy measures could induce an almost complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? We use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating systems. Our results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. We find that policy mixes are more effective for incentivising the uptake of fuel-efficient low-carbon technologies, compared to a residential carbon tax as the only policy. In combination with subsidies and procurement policies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a tax of 50–200 €/tCO2.Without being complimented by additional policies, carbon taxes show a decreasing marginal impact on total emission reductions, thus remaining insufficient for deep decarbonisation. In all scenarios, the decarbonisation of heating would increase projected heating costs faced by households initially, but could lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. We show that the potential impacts of policies highly depend on behavioural decision-making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation.