Detail and the devil of on-farm parasite control under climate change
Detail and the devil of on-farm parasite control under climate change
复制标题
气候变化下农场寄生虫控制的细节和魔鬼
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
E. Morgan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Morgan
寄生虫对牲畜的挑战水平和季节性模式可能受到气候变化的影响，通过对最终宿主外的生命周期阶段的直接影响，以及通过影响暴露和易感性的管理改变。净效应和适应这些效应的备选办法将在很大程度上取决于所考虑的系统的细节。这篇简短的论文并不是对气候变化对寄生虫影响的全面综述，而是试图确定在支持农民适应方面细节很重要且可以说认识不足的关键领域。我认为，有用的预测应该更充分地考虑到系统的特定属性，影响疾病的出现，而不仅仅是气候变量对寄生虫生物学的影响。与此同时，过度的复杂性不适合有用的农场级决策支持。有效处理这一领域的“细节问题”将取决于找到正确的平衡，并将决定我们能否成功地将科学应用于农民适应气候变化。
Abstract Levels and seasonal patterns of parasite challenge to livestock are likely to be affected by climate change, through direct effects on life cycle stages outside the definitive host and through alterations in management that affect exposure and susceptibility. Net effects and options for adapting to them will depend very strongly on details of the system under consideration. This short paper is not a comprehensive review of climate change effects on parasites, but rather seeks to identify key areas in which detail is important and arguably under-recognized in supporting farmer adaptation. I argue that useful predictions should take fuller account of system-specific properties that influence disease emergence, and not just the effects of climatic variables on parasite biology. At the same time, excessive complexity is ill-suited to useful farm-level decision support. Dealing effectively with the ‘devil of detail’ in this area will depend on finding the right balance, and will determine our success in applying science to climate change adaptation by farmers.