Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends in the Twentieth and Twenty‐First Centuries Simulated With the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)
Middle Atmosphere Temperature Trends in the Twentieth and Twenty‐First Centuries Simulated With the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)
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DOI：
10.1029/2019ja026909
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发表时间：
2019-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Garcia;J. Yue;J. Russell
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文献类型：
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作者：
R. Garcia;J. Yue;J. Russell
我们使用全大气社区气候模式在各种气候变化情景下的模拟来研究20世纪末和21世纪全球平均温度趋势的演变。结果与现有的卫星观测，包括新的趋势估计来自使用宽带发射辐射测量仪器在美国宇航局的TIMED航天器的大气探测。在卫星数据所涵盖的时期内，从对流层顶附近（~16公里）到热层下层（~95公里），模拟和观测的趋势在整个中层大气中是一致的。模拟扩展到21世纪，以记录全球平均温度趋势剖面的演变。我们发现，与以前的研究一致，二十一世纪之交的趋势概况发生了显著变化，这是由《蒙特利尔议定书》通过后平流层臭氧的恢复所驱动的。在21世纪，趋势剖面随着海拔高度变得更加一致，但其总体形状和幅度取决于未来温室气体排放所采用的情景。我们的研究结果表明，中层大气温度趋势的垂直分布仍将是全球气候变化的一个重要标志，它们强调了对这一大气区域进行全球持续监测的重要性。
We use Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulations made under various climate change scenarios to study the evolution of the global‐mean temperature trend in the late twentieth century and the twenty‐first century. Results are compared with available satellite observations, including new trend estimates derived from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument on NASA's TIMED spacecraft. Modeled and observed trends are shown to be consistent throughout the entire middle atmosphere, from near the tropopause (~16 km) to the lower thermosphere (~95 km) in the period covered by the satellite data. Simulations are extended into the twenty‐first century to document the evolution of the global‐mean temperature trend profile. We find, consistent with previous studies, a marked change in the trend profile at the turn of the twenty‐first century, which is driven by the recovery of stratospheric ozone following the adoption of the Montreal Protocol. In the twenty‐first century, the trend profile becomes more uniform with altitude, but its overall shape and magnitude are conditioned by the scenario adopted for future emissions of greenhouse gases. Our results suggest that the vertical profile of temperature trends in the middle atmosphere will remain an important signature of global climate change, and they underscore the importance of global, continuous monitoring of this region of the atmosphere.