A risk and economic analysis of dirty bomb attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and long beach
A risk and economic analysis of dirty bomb attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and long beach
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00908.x
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发表时间：
2007-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
von Winterfeldt, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rosoff, H.;von Winterfeldt, D.
本文分析了洛杉矶和长滩港口可能发生的恐怖袭击，利用放射性扩散装置（RDD，也称为“脏弹”）关闭港口运营并造成重大经济和心理影响。该分析是对多种风险分析工具组合的探索性调查，包括情景生成和修剪、项目风险分析、直接后果建模和间接经济影响评估。我们检查了 36 种攻击场景，并使用定性判断将其简化为两种看似合理或可能的场景。针对这两种情况，我们进行了项目风险分析，以了解恐怖分子实施袭击所需执行的任务，并确定项目成功的可能性。成功攻击的后果是通过放射性羽流模型以及由此产生的人类健康和经济影响来描述的。初步研究结果表明，脏弹袭击成功的几率约为 10-40%，而且高放射性剂量仅限于相对较小的区域，即使有大量释放，也将健康影响限制在数十种或最多数百种潜在癌症上。然而，由于污染而关闭港口的经济后果可能会导致数百亿美元的重大损失，包括净化成本和港口关闭造成的间接经济影响。讨论了对抗脏弹攻击的影响，包括保护放射源和拦截正在进行的脏弹攻击。
This article analyzes possible terrorist attacks on the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach using a radiological dispersal device (RDD, also known as a "dirty bomb") to shut down port operations and cause substantial economic and psychological impacts. The analysis is an exploratory investigation of a combination of several risk analysis tools, including scenario generation and pruning, project risk analysis, direct consequence modeling, and indirect economic impact assessment. We examined 36 attack scenarios and reduced them to two plausible or likely scenarios using qualitative judgments. For these two scenarios, we conducted a project risk analysis to understand the tasks terrorists need to perform to carry out the attacks and to determine the likelihood of the project's success. The consequences of a successful attack are described in terms of a radiological plume model and resulting human health and economic impacts. Initial findings suggest that the chances of a successful dirty bomb attack are about 10-40% and that high radiological doses are confined to a relatively small area, limiting health effects to tens or at most hundreds of latent cancers, even with a major release. However, the economic consequences from a shutdown of the harbors due to the contamination could result in significant losses in the tens of billions of dollars, including the decontamination costs and the indirect economic impacts due to the port shutdown. The implications for countering a dirty bomb attack, including the protection of the radiological sources and intercepting an ongoing dirty bomb attack are discussed.