Novel Miscanthus hybrids: Modelling productivity on marginal land in Europe using dynamics of canopy development determined by light interception
Novel Miscanthus hybrids: Modelling productivity on marginal land in Europe using dynamics of canopy development determined by light interception
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DOI：
10.1111/gcbb.13029
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发表时间：
2023-01
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通讯作者：
A. Shepherd;Danny Awty‐Carroll;Jason Kam;Chris Ashman;Elena Magenau;E. Martani;Mislav Kontek;A. Ferrarini;S. Amaducci;C. Davey;Vanja Jurišić;Gert‐Jan Petrie;Mohamad Al Hassan;Isabelle Lamy;I. Lewandowski;Emmanuel de Maupeou;J. McCalmont;L. Trindade;Kasper van der Cruijsen;Philip van der Pluijm;R. Rowe;A. Lovett;I. Donnison;Andreas Kiesel;J. Clifton‐Brown;A. Hastings
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作者：
A. Shepherd;Danny Awty‐Carroll;Jason Kam;Chris Ashman;Elena Magenau;E. Martani;Mislav Kontek;A. Ferrarini;S. Amaducci;C. Davey;Vanja Jurišić;Gert‐Jan Petrie;Mohamad Al Hassan;Isabelle Lamy;I. Lewandowski;Emmanuel de Maupeou;J. McCalmont;L. Trindade;Kasper van der Cruijsen;Philip van der Pluijm;R. Rowe;A. Lovett;I. Donnison;Andreas Kiesel;J. Clifton‐Brown;A. Hastings
为了扩大生物经济，新的生物质作物杂交需要产量预测，以确定它们在面对全球挑战时战略性土地利用规划的潜力。我们的生物质生长模拟结合了辐射拦截和转换效率。模型通常使用叶面积来预测截流，但这需要精确地确定，因此我们使用低成本的快速光截流测量方法，使用简单的实验室制造的线亮度计，并将冠层闭合的动态与热时间和生物量的测量联系起来。我们应用该模型来预测2020-2030年欧洲新市场就绪的混合动力车的生物质潜力。野外测量数据更容易收集，校正是季节性动态的，减少了野外站点之间天气变化的影响。所得到的模型是保守的，是通过在低生产力（边际）土地上不同种植和不同成熟度的作物来校准的。基于最低（生产力）草地和耕地10%的土地利用转换，对2020-2030年芒草杂交品种的保守预测显示，欧洲的年生物量潜力为800.7 - 8970万吨，年能量潜力为1.2-1.3 EJ，年碳捕获潜力为36.3 - 4030万吨，其中种子芒草（miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis）的产量潜力最高。模拟生物量预测必须根据在土壤水分严重缺乏的低生产力土地上进行的实地测量来看待。我们正试图模拟一个雄心勃勃的新项目的结果，该项目将欧洲各地的新杂交品种与农艺结合起来，而农艺在生产力较低的地区尚未完善。然而，在能源来源问题上，种子繁殖的芒草杂交品种为大规模提供生物能源提供了一种可再生能源的替代来源。如果欧洲国家为种植者提供投资的激励措施，种子杂交品种可以提高产品的可用性和生物量产量，而不是目前的商业芒草品种。
New biomass crop hybrids for bioeconomic expansion require yield projections to determine their potential for strategic land use planning in the face of global challenges. Our biomass growth simulation incorporates radiation interception and conversion efficiency. Models often use leaf area to predict interception which is demanding to determine accurately, so instead we use low‐cost rapid light interception measurements using a simple laboratory‐made line ceptometer and relate the dynamics of canopy closure to thermal time, and to measurements of biomass. We apply the model to project the European biomass potentials of new market‐ready hybrids for 2020–2030. Field measurements are easier to collect, the calibration is seasonally dynamic and reduces influence of weather variation between field sites. The model obtained is conservative, being calibrated by crops of varying establishment and varying maturity on less productive (marginal) land. This results in conservative projections of miscanthus hybrids for 2020–2030 based on 10% land use conversion of the least (productive) grassland and arable for farm diversification, which show a European potential of 80.7–89.7 Mt year−1 biomass, with potential for 1.2–1.3 EJ year−1 energy and 36.3–40.3 Mt year−1 carbon capture, with seeded Miscanthus sacchariflorus × sinensis displaying highest yield potential. Simulated biomass projections must be viewed in light of the field measurements on less productive land with high soil water deficits. We are attempting to model the results from an ambitious and novel project combining new hybrids across Europe with agronomy which has not been perfected on less productive sites. Nevertheless, at the time of energy sourcing issues, seed‐propagated miscanthus hybrids for the upscaled provision of bioenergy offer an alternative source of renewable energy. If European countries provide incentives for growers to invest, seeded hybrids can improve product availability and biomass yields over the current commercial miscanthus variety.