The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats
The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02641.x
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Jones, Gareth
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hughes, Alice C.;Satasook, Chutamas;Jones, Gareth
东南亚是全球生物多样性的热点地区，但却面临着大面积的森林砍伐，其生物多样性面临着许多威胁。气候变化是对物种生存和生存能力的重大挑战，必须评估其潜在后果，以便采取缓解措施。我们项目的几个气候变化情景对蝙蝠多样性的影响，并预测整个SEA的171蝙蝠物种的范围大小的变化。我们使用IPCC生物气候情景A2（严重情景，人口规模持续增加，经济增长的区域变化）和B1（最绿色的情景，全球人口在本世纪中叶达到峰值）预测2050 - 2080年所有物种丰富度高（>80种）地区的物种丰富度下降。我们还预测了2050年前植被变化和气候变化的情景中物种丰富度的变化。在2050年和2080年，A2和B1情景纳入气候因素的变化预测，39%的物种将失去所有目前合适的生态位空间。当考虑物种在SEA中的分布范围（包括可能的范围扩展），26%的物种可能没有合适的生态位空间在2050 - 2080年。当潜在的植被和气候变化相结合时，只有1%的物种在2050年的预测范围内没有变化。虽然一些物种预计会扩大范围，但由于潜在的扩散障碍，特别是对于扩散能力差的物种，这在生态上可能是不可能的。只有113%的物种在生物气候情景下没有表现出预测的减少。改善景观连通性是促进扩散受限物种范围转移的有效途径。如果目前的环境变化趋势继续下去，物种不能扩大其范围到新的领域，那么大多数蝙蝠物种在SEA可能会显示范围大小和增加灭绝的风险在下一个世纪内减少。
Southeast-Asia (SEA) constitutes a global biodiversity hotspot, but is exposed to extensive deforestation and faces numerous threats to its biodiversity. Climate change represents a major challenge to the survival and viability of species, and the potential consequences must be assessed to allow for mitigation. We project the effects of several climate change scenarios on bat diversity, and predict changes in range size for 171 bat species throughout SEA. We predict decreases in species richness in all areas with high species richness (>80 species) at 20502080, using bioclimatic IPCC scenarios A2 (a severe scenario, continuously increasing human population size, regional changes in economic growth) and B1 (the greenest scenario, global population peaking mid-century). We also predicted changes in species richness in scenarios that project vegetation changes in addition to climate change up to 2050. At 2050 and 2080, A2 and B1 scenarios incorporating changes in climatic factors predicted that 39% species would lose all currently suitable niche space. When considering total extents of species distribution in SEA (including possible range expansions), 26% of species may have no suitable niche space in 20502080. When potential vegetation and climate changes were combined only 1% of species showed no changes in their predicted ranges by 2050. Although some species are projected to expand ranges, this may be ecologically impossible due to potential barriers to dispersal, especially for species with poor dispersal ability. Only 113% of species showed no projected reductions in their current range under bioclimatic scenarios. An effective way to facilitate range shift for dispersal-limited species is to improve landscape connectivity. If current trends in environmental change continue and species cannot expand their ranges into new areas, then the majority of bat species in SEA may show decreases in range size and increased extinction risk within the next century.