When is quarantine a useful control strategy for emerging infectious diseases?
When is quarantine a useful control strategy for emerging infectious diseases?
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DOI：
10.1093/aje/kwj056
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Wu, JH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Day, T;Park, A;Wu, JH
对有症状者的隔离和治疗，以及对感染高风险者的隔离，构成了两种常用的疫情控制措施。尽管隔离可能始终是一项理想的公共卫生措施，但隔离更具争议性。大规模隔离可能会造成巨大的社会、心理和经济成本，而不会导致许多感染者被发现。作者使用概率模型来确定隔离预计有用的条件。结果表明，如果隔离有效，通过隔离避免的感染数量（每个最初感染的个体）预计会非常低，但随着隔离有效性的减弱，感染数量会突然增加并加速。当隔离无效时，当无症状传播显着且无症状期既不太长也不太短时，使用检疫将是最有益的。
The isolation and treatment of symptomatic individuals, coupled with the quarantining of individuals that have a high risk of having been infected, constitute two commonly used epidemic control measures. Although isolation is probably always a desirable public health measure, quarantine is more controversial. Mass quarantine can inflict significant social, psychological, and economic costs without resulting in the detection of many infected individuals. The authors use probabilistic models to determine the conditions under which quarantine is expected to be useful. Results demonstrate that the number of infections averted (per initially infected individual) through the use of quarantine is expected to be very low provided that isolation is effective, but it increases abruptly and at an accelerating rate as the effectiveness of isolation diminishes. When isolation is ineffective, the use of quarantine will be most beneficial when there is significant asymptomatic transmission and if the asymptomatic period is neither very long nor very short.