Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation
Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
L. Shaffrey;D. Hodson;J. Robson;D. Stevens;E. Hawkins;I. Polo;I. Stevens;R. Sutton;G. Lister-G.-List
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Shaffrey;D. Hodson;J. Robson;D. Stevens;E. Hawkins;I. Polo;I. Stevens;R. Sutton;G. Lister-G.-List
本文介绍了使用HiGEM耦合气候模式产生的年代际预测的发展和基本评价。HiGEM是HadGEM 1 Met Office统一模型的更高分辨率版本。HiGEM的水平分辨率已提高到大气层的经度和纬度，以及海洋的全球分辨率。HiGEM的年代际预测初始化使用异常同化方案，放宽异常的海洋温度和盐度观测异常。为10个开始日期（1960年，1965年，...，2000年，2005年）。为了确定相对贡献的预测技巧，从初始条件和外部强迫，HiGEM十年的预测相比，未初始化的HiGEM瞬态实验。HiGEM的年代际预测有实质性的技能，年平均地面气温和100米上层海洋温度的预测。对于长达10年的提前期，北大西洋、西太平洋和印度洋大面积区域的异常相关性（ACC）超过0.6。HiGEM十年预测的初始化显著提高了大西洋地区，海洋大陆和亚热带北太平洋和南太平洋地区的技能。特别是，HiGEM对北大西洋副极地环流进行了长达4年的预测（ACC > 0.7），这比未初始化的HiGEM瞬态实验要大得多。
This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased toin longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, andglobally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean, the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.