Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years
Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nature08219
复制
发表时间：
2009-08-13
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Zhang, Zhihua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mann, Michael E.;Woodruff, Jonathan D.;Zhang, Zhihua
大西洋热带气旋活动，以每年的风暴数量来衡量，在过去十年中达到了异常水平（1）。然而，历史记录的短暂性及其在前几十年的可靠性的潜在问题，引发了关于最近崛起的现实和意义的持续辩论（2-5）。在这里，我们通过比较过去1,500年来热带气旋活动的两个独立估计，将近期活动置于长期背景下。第一个估计是基于登陆飓风的区域沉积证据的合成，而第二个估计使用以前公布的大西洋热带气旋活动的统计模型，由过去气候变化的代理重建驱动。这两种方法都得出了一致的证据，表明大西洋热带气旋活动在中世纪（公元1000年左右）达到高峰，随后活动平静。统计模型表明，中世纪的高峰期，其竞争对手，甚至超过（在不确定性）最近的活动水平，从拉尼娜样的气候条件和相对热带大西洋温暖的加强效果的结果。
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, as measured by annual storm counts, reached anomalous levels over the past decade(1). The short nature of the historical record and potential issues with its reliability in earlier decades, however, has prompted an ongoing debate regarding the reality and significance of the recent rise(2-5). Here we place recent activity in a longer-term context by comparing two independent estimates of tropical cyclone activity over the past 1,500 years. The first estimate is based on a composite of regional sedimentary evidence of landfalling hurricanes, while the second estimate uses a previously published statistical model of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity driven by proxy reconstructions of past climate changes. Both approaches yield consistent evidence of a peak in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during medieval times (around AD 1000) followed by a subsequent lull in activity. The statistical model indicates that the medieval peak, which rivals or even exceeds (within uncertainties) recent levels of activity, results from the reinforcing effects of La-Nina-like climate conditions and relative tropical Atlantic warmth.