Assessing and modeling heterosexual spread of the human immunodeficiency virus in the United States.
Assessing and modeling heterosexual spread of the human immunodeficiency virus in the United States.
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评估和模拟美国人类免疫缺陷病毒的异性传播。
DOI：
10.1093/clinids/10.1.138
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发表时间：
1988
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mayer,KH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
DeGruttola,V;Mayer,KH
对异性恋者中艾滋病流行的流行病学调查主要包括对感染人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）的个人的伴侣的研究和人口监测。受感染者的异性伴侣似乎有很高的感染风险，但在美国和欧洲，只有一小部分艾滋病病例归因于异性接触。建立了一个艾滋病异性传播的流行病模型，并将其应用于监测数据。拟合值限于与合作伙伴研究结果一致的范围。由于目前大多数感染艾滋病毒的异性恋者和双性恋者是通过其他途径（静脉注射毒品或同性恋接触）感染的，该模型考虑了两个相互作用的人群：一个是通过高风险活动迅速感染的少数人群，另一个是仅通过异性恋接触感染的大量人群。关于艾滋病在异性恋者中的流行，目前还不可能有精确的预测，但目前的流行病学研究结果既不能预测也不能排除异性恋者中的大流行。预测在很大程度上取决于感染和传染性之间的延迟。该模型还可以用来证明如何解释HIV感染的病例对照研究结果取决于流行病的动态基本假设。
Epidemiologic investigation of the AIDS epidemic among heterosexuals has consisted chiefly of studies of partners of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and population surveillance. Heterosexual partners of infected individuals appear to be at high risk of infection, but only a small proportion of cases of AIDS have been attributed to heterosexual contact in the United States and Europe. An epidemic model for heterosexual spread of HIV infection is developed and fit to surveillance data. Fitted values are restricted to a range consistent with findings from partner studies. Because, at present, most HIV-infected heterosexuals and bisexuals have been infected through other means (intravenous drug use or homosexual contact), the model considers two interacting populations: a small population of individuals rapidly infected by high-risk activity and a large population of individuals at risk only from heterosexual contact. No precise predictions concerning the AIDS epidemic among heterosexuals are possible now, but current epidemiologic findings neither predict nor preclude a major heterosexual epidemic. Projections depend strongly on the delay between infection and infectivity. The model can also be used to demonstrate how interpretation of results of case-control studies of HIV infection depends on underlying assumptions about the dynamics of the epidemic.