What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?
What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2010.05.006
复制
发表时间：
2010-08-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Clements, A. C. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnett, A. G.;Tong, S.;Clements, A. C. A.
炎热和寒冷的温度显著增加了世界各地的死亡率，但哪种温度测量方法是死亡率的最佳预测因素尚不清楚。我们使用了107个美国城市1987-2000年的死亡率数据，并使用泊松回归研究了温度和死亡率之间的关系，并建立了非线性温度效应和非线性滞后结构的模型。我们研究了平均值，最低和最高温度，湿度和表观温度和湿度。最佳测量被定义为具有最小交叉验证残差的测量。我们发现不同年龄组、季节和城市之间的最佳温度测量存在很大差异，并且没有一种温度测量上级其他温度测量。不同温度测量之间的强相关性意味着，平均而言，它们具有相同的预测能力。新研究的最佳温度测量可以根据实际问题选择，例如选择缺失数据最少的测量。(C)2010年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987-2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.