Yield variability as influenced by climate: A statistical investigation
Yield variability as influenced by climate: A statistical investigation
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DOI：
10.1023/b:clim.0000043159.33816.e5
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发表时间：
2004-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Schimmelpfennig, DE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, CC;McCarl, BA;Schimmelpfennig, DE
气候变化的问题之一涉及其对未来农作物产量分布的影响。关于对此类分布均值的影响已经进行了许多研究，但很少涉及对方差的影响。此外，那些已经完成的研究通常报告来自作物模拟器的差异，而不是来自观察的差异。本文在当前观测到的产量背景下研究了气候变化对作物产量差异的潜在影响，然后推断出预计气候变化下的影响。特别是，针对美国主要农作物构建了气候对逐年产量变化影响的最大似然面板数据估计。所使用的面板数据技术体现了按照 Just 和 Pope 建议的随机生产函数方法开发的方差估计。估计结果表明，气候变化会以特定作物的方式改变作物产量水平和差异。对于高粱来说，降雨和温度增加会增加产量水平和变异性。另一方面，降水和温度分别对玉米产量水平和变异性产生相反的影响。
One of the issues with respect to climate change involves its influence on the distribution of future crop yields. Many studies have been done regarding the effect on the mean of such distributions but few have addressed the effect on variance. Furthermore, those that have been done generally report the variance from crop simulators, not from observations. This paper examines the potential effects of climate change on crop yield variance in the context of current observed yields and then extrapolates to the effects under projected climate change. In particular, maximum likelihood panel data estimates of the impacts of climate on year-to-year yield variability are constructed for the major U. S. agricultural crops. The panel data technique used embodies a variance estimate developed along the lines of the stochastic production function approach suggested by Just and Pope. The estimation results indicate that changes in climate modify crop yield levels and variances in a crop-specific fashion. For sorghum, rainfall and temperature increases are found to increase yield level and variability. On the other hand, precipitation and temperature are individually found to have opposite effects on corn yield levels and variability.