Assessing and Improving the Operational Resilience of a Large Highway Infrastructure System to Worst-Case Losses
Assessing and Improving the Operational Resilience of a Large Highway Infrastructure System to Worst-Case Losses
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DOI：
10.1287/trsc.2017.0749
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Wood, R. Kevin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alderson, David L.;Brown, Gerald G.;Wood, R. Kevin
本文研究了旧金山弗朗西斯科湾地区区域公路运输系统的弹性。集中在通勤交通的高峰期，交通模式计算从一个模型，其中包括非线性增加的旅行时间，由于拥堵，并反映了实际的出行需求，如美国人口普查人口数据。我们考虑了与一个或多个道路、桥梁和/或隧道段的损失相关的后果，在这些路段上，旅行者可以重新选择路线以避免拥堵，或者在交通状况不好的情况下根本不旅行。我们使用一个顺序的游戏，以确定道路，桥梁或隧道段的损失，在最坏情况下的旅行时间的结果集。我们还演示了如何使用该模型来量化系统的操作弹性，以及不同的防御性投资的弹性权衡的特征，从而提供简洁的信息，以指导规划者和决策者。
This paper studies the resilience of the regional highway transportation system of the San Francisco Bay Area. Focusing on peak periods for commuter traffic, traffic patterns are computed from a model that includes nonlinear increases in travel times due to congestion and reflects actual travel demands as captured by U.S. Census demographic data. We consider the consequences associated with loss of one or more road, bridge, and/or tunnel segments, where travelers are allowed to reroute to avoid congestion or potentially not travel at all if traffic is bad. We use a sequential game to identify sets of road, bridge, or tunnel segments whose loss results in worst-case travel times. We also demonstrate how the model can be used to quantify the operational resilience of the system, as well as to characterize trade-offs in resilience for different defensive investments, thus providing concise information to guide planners and decision makers.