The Future of Nuclear Power in France: An Analysis of the Costs of Phasing-out
The Future of Nuclear Power in France: An Analysis of the Costs of Phasing-out
复制标题
法国核电的未来：逐步淘汰成本分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.008
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Johannes Trüby
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raimund Malischek;Johannes Trüby
核电是法国发电的重要支柱。然而，法国的核电站正在老化，人们越来越多地讨论减少核能在发电中的份额，甚至完全淘汰核能的可能性。本文主要关注三个相互关联的问题：第一，法国逐步淘汰核电的成本是什么？其次，谁来承担这些成本，也就是说，有多少成本将被转嫁到欧洲电力系统的其他部分？第三，法国未来核政策的不确定性对系统成本有什么影响？应用欧洲电力系统的随机优化模型，分析表明，2010年法国核电淘汰的额外系统成本高达760亿欧元。额外费用大部分由法国电力系统承担。令人惊讶的是，分析发现不确定性的成本相当有限。根据结果，可以得出结论，就系统成本节约而言，有关核政策改革的承诺仅略微有益。
Nuclear power is an important pillar in electricity generation in France. However, the French nuclear power plant fleet is ageing, and the possibility of reducing the technology's share in power generation or even a complete phase-out has been increasingly discussed. This paper focuses on three inter-related questions: First, what are the costs of phasing-out nuclear power in France? Second, who has to bear these costs, i.e., how much of the costs will be passed on to the rest of the European power system? And third, what effect does the uncertainty regarding future nuclear policy in France have on system costs? Applying a stochastic optimization model for the European electricity system, the analysis showed that additional system costs in France of a nuclear phase-out amount up to 76 billion €2010. Additional costs are mostly borne by the French power system. Surprisingly, the analysis found that the costs of uncertainty are rather limited. Based on the results, it can be concluded that a commitment regarding nuclear policy reform is only mildly beneficial in terms of system cost savings.