Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment with simulation-based response surfaces
Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment with simulation-based response surfaces
复制标题
使用基于模拟的响应面进行概率海啸灾害评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2020.103719
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Choe Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kotani T.;Tozato K.;Takase S;Moriguchi S.;Terada K.;Fukutani Y.;Otake Y.;Nojima K.;Sakuraba M.;Choe Y.
提出了一种基于响应面的概率海啸危险性评估方法。虽然最近的进展，在数值模拟海啸灾害的准确表征，数值模拟的高计算成本往往禁止其广泛应用于概率灾害分析。所提出的方法解决了这一挑战，通过构建响应面（RS）的目标输出使用高保真海啸模拟的结果。所提出的方法量化的关键模拟变量的不确定性和传播这些不确定性的目标输出通过RS在一个计算效率高的蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）。我们说明和验证所提出的方法，通过2011年东日本大地震引起的海啸的案例研究。案例研究的重点是仙台，石卷，釜石在日本的目标位置。所提出的方法估计沿海海啸的高度，同时考虑在断层滑动和倾角以及与数值模拟相关的建模误差的不确定性。MCS允许我们估计目标位置处海啸高度的概率密度函数。所提出的方法量化的贡献，每个来源的不确定性的总体不确定性的目标输出，从而方便工程决策。
This paper proposes a novel response surface-based method for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA). Although recent advancements in numerical simulation have enabled the accurate characterization of tsunami hazards, the high computational cost of numerical simulation often prohibits its broad application to probabilistic hazard analysis. The proposed method addresses this challenge by constructing the response surface (RS) of a target output using the results of high-fidelity tsunami simulations. The proposed method quantifies uncertainties in key simulation variables and propagates those uncertainties to the target output through the RS in a computationally efficient Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). We illustrate and validate the proposed method through a case study of the tsunami induced by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. The case study focuses on Sendai, Ishinomaki, and Kamaishi in Japan as the target locations. The proposed method estimates coastal tsunami heights while considering uncertainties in the fault slip and rake as well as the modeling error associated with the numerical simulation. The MCS allows us to estimate the probability density functions of the tsunami height at the target locations. The proposed method quantifies the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty in the target output and thus facilitates engineering decision-making.