The long-term policy context for solar radiation management
The long-term policy context for solar radiation management
复制标题
太阳辐射管理的长期政策背景
作者：
Steven J. Smith;P. Rasch
我们研究了“太阳辐射管理”或“阳光减少方法”（SRM）在限制未来气候变化方面的潜在作用，重点关注SRM部署和缓解气候响应不确定性背景下的相互作用。我们使用一个简单的场景分析表明，政策和物理环境决定的潜在需求，金额和SRM的时间。如果气候敏感性很高，则需要采用固体火箭发动机技术，沿着大幅度减排政策，以实现既定的政策目标，例如将气候变化限制在比工业化前水平高2 °C的范围内。目前的建模研究所研究的SRM水平远远高于一个一致的长期政策的假设下所需的水平。我们引入了一个度-年指标，它量化了将全球温度保持在给定阈值以下所需的SRM的大小。
We examine the potential role of “solar radiation management” or “sunlight reduction methods” (SRM) in limiting future climate change, focusing on the interplay between SRM deployment and mitigation in the context of uncertainty in climate response. We use a straightforward scenario analysis to show that the policy and physical context determine the potential need, amount, and timing of SRM. SRM techniques, along with a substantial emission reduction policy, would be needed to meet stated policy goals, such as limiting climate change to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, if the climate sensitivity is high. The SRM levels examined by current modeling studies are much higher than the levels required under an assumption of a consistent long-term policy. We introduce a degree-year metric, which quantifies the magnitude of SRM that would be needed to keep global temperatures under a given threshold.