Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters
Climate change and influenza: the likelihood of early and severe influenza seasons following warmer than average winters
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DOI：
10.1371/currents.flu.3679b56a3a5313dc7c043fb944c6f138
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发表时间：
2013-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Towers;G. Chowell;Rasheed Hameed;M. Jastrebski;Maryam Khan;Jonathan Meeks;A. Mubayi;George Harris-Geo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Towers;G. Chowell;Rasheed Hameed;M. Jastrebski;Maryam Khan;Jonathan Meeks;A. Mubayi;George Harris-Geo
2012-13年流感季节在美国有一个异常早和严重的开始，取代了2011-12年创纪录的温和流感季节，后者发生在有记录以来第四温暖的冬季。我们对1997-98年至今的气候和过去美国流感流行季节的分析表明，温暖的冬季之后往往会出现发病较早的严重流行病，甲型和乙型流感都可以看到这种模式。我们假设在温暖的冬季感染流感的人较少，因此在进入下一个季节时，人口中不自然地留下了很大一部分易感人群，这可能会导致早期和严重的流行病。如果全球持续变暖，预计像2011-12年那样的暖冬将更频繁地发生。因此，我们的结果表明，在暖冬之后加快流感疫苗的制造和分发，有可能减轻未来流感流行的严重性。
The 2012-13 influenza season had an unusually early and severe start in the US, succeeding the record mild 2011-12 influenza season, which occurred during the fourth warmest winter on record. Our analysis of climate and past US influenza epidemic seasons between 1997-98 to present indicates that warm winters tend to be followed by severe epidemics with early onset, and that these patterns are seen for both influenza A and B. We posit that fewer people are infected with influenza during warm winters, thereby leaving an unnaturally large fraction of susceptible individuals in the population going into the next season, which can lead to early and severe epidemics. In the event of continued global warming, warm winters such as that of 2011-12 are expected to occur more frequently. Our results thus suggest that expedited manufacture and distribution of influenza vaccines after mild winters has the potential to mitigate the severity of future influenza epidemics.