Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation
Structural unemployment, underemployment, and secular stagnation
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3601444
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发表时间：
2023-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Hashimoto;Yoshiyasu Ono;Matthias Schlegl
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
K. Hashimoto;Yoshiyasu Ono;Matthias Schlegl
我们在标准搜索匹配模型中引入财富偏好，分析了持续需求短缺时的劳动力市场。我们表明，在某些条件下，存在一个长期的停滞稳定状态，在这种状态下，由于结构性失业和就业不足，经济永久性地在产能以下运行。后者是总需求不足的直接后果。我们的研究结果如下。在不存在需求短缺的情况下，对财富的偏好除了标准匹配模型的就业创造渠道外，还因诱发的真实的利率变化而为冲击和政策措施创造了新的传导渠道。关于停滞均衡，需求和供应冲击的影响与标准情况相反，导致失业和就业不足的共同运动。与此相反，工资和成本冲击的影响取决于总需求短缺的程度，但它们可以解释失业和就业不足的反向运动。最后，我们表明，在停滞的总就业差距的波动主要是由不充分就业的波动，而不是结构性失业。我们的分析有助于理解为什么日本的失业率在失去的几十年里出奇地低，并强调尽管就业记录看似不错，但仍需要进一步的政策干预来支持总需求。
We introduce a preference for wealth into the standard search and matching model to analyze the labor market when there is persistent demand shortage. We show that, under some conditions, a secular stagnation steady state exists in which the economy permanently operates below capacity due to both structural unemployment and underemployment. The latter is a direct consequence of the lack of aggregate demand. Our findings are as follows. In the absence of demand shortage, the preference for wealth creates a new transmission channel for shocks and policy measures due to induced changes in the real interest rate, in addition to the job creation channel of the standard matching model. Turning to the stagnation equilibrium, the effects of demand and supply shocks are opposite to those of the standard case and result in a co-movement of unemployment and underemployment. In contrast, the effects of wage and cost shocks depend on the degree of aggregate demand shortage, but they can explain movements of unemployment and underemployment in opposite directions. Finally, we show that fluctuations in the total employment gap under stagnation are primarily driven by fluctuations in underemployment instead of structural unemployment. Our analysis helps to understand why the unemployment rate in Japan has been surprisingly low during its lost decades and highlights the need for further policy interventions in support of aggregate demand despite a seemingly decent employment record.