Anticipating land-use impacts of self-driving vehicles in the Austin, Texas, region
Anticipating land-use impacts of self-driving vehicles in the Austin, Texas, region
复制标题
预测德克萨斯州奥斯汀地区自动驾驶汽车对土地利用的影响
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
K. Kockelman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. K. Wellik;K. Kockelman
本文使用了德克萨斯州奥斯汀土地利用模型 SILO 27 年的实施情况，旨在了解自动驾驶车辆的全面采用对该地区住宅用地的影响。 SILO 已与奥斯汀地区的 MATSim 集成。土地使用和出行结果是针对在模型时间范围内 0% 自动驾驶或“自主”车辆 (AV) 的照常情况 (BAU) 和家庭出行时间节省价值 (VTTS) 减少 50% 以反映不再需要驾驶而减少的出行负担的情况生成的。第三种情景还与 BAU 进行了比较和检查，以了解由于共享 AV (SAV) 车队中的动态乘车共享 (DRS) 选项而导致车辆占用率 (VO) 上升和/或道路容量增加的影响。结果表明，在最终模型年，当 VTTS 下降 50% 且 VO 不受影响（100% AV 情景）时，平均出差时间增加了 8.1%，并且“极端出差”（单程超过 1 小时）的家庭数量增加了 33.3%（相对于 0% AV 的 BAU）。当 VO 提高到 2.0 并且 VTTS 下降 25%（“Hi-DRS”SAV 情景）时，最终模型年的平均工作旅行时间增加了 3.5%，“极端工作旅行”的家庭数量增加了 16.4%（相对于 0% AV 的 BAU）。该模型还预测，与 BAU 情景的最后一年相比，最终模型年 100% AV 情景中奥斯汀市的家庭数量将减少 5.3%，可用可开发土地将增加 19.1%，而城市外的家庭数量将增加 5.6%，可开发土地将减少 10.2%。此外，模型结果预测，与 BAU 情景的最后一年相比，在 Hi-DRS SAV 情景的最终模型年，奥斯汀市的家庭数量将减少 5.6%，可用可开发土地将增加 62.9%，而城市外的家庭数量将增加 6.2%，可开发土地将减少 9.9%。
This paper used an implementation of the land-use model SILO in Austin, Texas, over a 27-year period with an aim to understand the impacts of the full adoption of self-driving vehicles on the region’s residential land use. SILO was integrated with MATSim for the Austin region. Land-use and travel results were generated for a business-as-usual case (BAU) of 0% self-driving or “autonomous” vehicles (AVs) over the model timeframe versus a scenario in which households’ value of travel time savings (VTTS) was reduced by 50% to reflect the travel-burden reductions of no longer having to drive. A third scenario was also compared and examined against BAU to understand the impacts of rising vehicle occupancy (VO) and/or higher roadway capacities due to dynamic ride-sharing (DRS) options in shared AV (SAV) fleets. Results suggested an 8.1% increase in average work-trip times when VTTS fell by 50% and VO remained unaffected (the 100% AV scenario) and a 33.3% increase in the number of households with “extreme work-trips” (over 1 hour, each way) in the final model year (versus BAU of 0% AVs). When VO was raised to 2.0 and VTTS fell instead by 25% (the “Hi-DRS” SAV scenario), average work-trip times increased by 3.5% and the number of households with “extreme work-trips” increased by 16.4% in the final model year (versus BAU of 0% AVs). The model also predicted 5.3% fewer households and 19.1% more available, developable land in the city of Austin in the 100% AV scenario in the final model year relative to the BAU scenario’s final year, with 5.6% more households and 10.2% less developable land outside the city. In addition, the model results predicted 5.6% fewer households and 62.9% more available developable land in the city of Austin in the Hi-DRS SAV scenario in the final model year relative to the BAU scenario’s final year, with 6.2% more households and 9.9% less developable land outside the city.