An analysis of the implications of China's urbanization policy for economic growth and energy consumption
An analysis of the implications of China's urbanization policy for economic growth and energy consumption
复制标题
中国城镇化政策对经济增长和能源消费的影响分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.207
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Zhang Yutao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Yingchun;Liu Jianghua;Zhang Yutao
即使在能源消费受到新限制的背景下，中国也打算依靠城镇化政策来提高经济增长。本文利用2000年至2010年中国所在的266个地级城市的数据，考察了城市化对经济增长和能源消耗的影响，并检验了这种影响在收入和城市化群体中的异质性。我们的实证估计的主要结果表明：(1)城市化对经济增长的影响在整个样本中都是正的且显著的，尽管只对中高收入群体(而不是低收入群体)是正的且显著的；(2)当根据诺瑟姆曲线将样本划分为三个城市化组时，城市化对能源消费的影响对所有群体都是正的且显著的，这表明城市化将导致能源消费的大幅增长。综上所述，我们的实证结果表明，在能源消费约束下，提高人均GDP的城镇化目标将难以实现。
China intends to rely on urbanization policies to increase its economic growth even against the backdrop of new constraints on energy consumption. This paper investigates the impact of urbanization on economic growth and energy consumption using data from China’s 266 prefecture-level cities over the 2000–2010 period and examines the heterogeneity of this impact across income and urbanization groups. The main results of our empirical estimation indicate that: (1) the effect of urbanization on economic growth is positive and significant for the entire sample, although it is positive and significant only for high- and middle-income groups (and not the low-income group); (2) the impact of urbanization on energy consumption is positive and significant for all groups when the sample is divided into three urbanization groups based on the Northam curve, indicating that urbanization will lead to large increases in energy consumption. In summary, our empirical results show that urbanization targets will be difficult to achieve in terms of increasing GDP per capita under energy consumption constraints.