Reanalysis of Surface Air Temperature Change of the Last 100 Years over China
Reanalysis of Surface Air Temperature Change of the Last 100 Years over China
复制标题
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Tang Guo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tang Guo
本文给出了1905-2001年中国平均地面气温距平序列。为了避免世纪前后因观测时间和统计方法不同而造成的资料不均匀性问题，我们采用了将月平均最高和最低气温平均的月平均气温资料。使用了广泛接受的建立面积平均气候时间序列和计算线性趋势的程序。对新的气温时间序列进行了分析，说明了其合理性.结果表明，近97年来，中国年平均气温升高了0.79 ℃，增暖速率为0.08 ℃/10 a，略高于IPCC TAR给出的全球或北方平均值。1946年和1998年是有记录以来最温暖的两个时期，分别发生在20世纪30 - 40年代和80 - 90年代。值得注意的是，1990年代的温度异常并不高于1940年代的温度异常，这意味着寒冷时期的变暖对长期积极趋势的贡献较大。近97年气温变化的季节特征表现为冬、春季升温较快，夏季降温趋势不明显。然而，再分析没有考虑城市化对温度记录的影响。为了更好地探测区域气候变化，有必要在进一步的研究中对这一问题给予更多的关注。
The present paper gives a new country-averaged surface air temperature anomaly series for China for 1905—2001 period. We used monthly mean temperature dada obtained by averaging monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures to avoid the in-homogeneity problems with data induced by differential observation times and statistic methods between early and late 20th century. The widely accepted procedures for creating area-averaged climatic time series and for calculating linear trend have been used. The new air temperature time series has been analyzed and its rationality also has been explained. The result shows that annual mean surface air temperature of the country for the past 97 years experienced a warming of 0.79 ℃, with a warming rate of 0.08 ℃/10 a which is slightly larger than global or northern hemispheric average as given by IPCC TAR. Two warm periods, which occurred respectively in the 1930s—1940s and the 1980s—1990s, are evident, with 1946 and 1998 as the warmest ones within the record period. It is interesting to note that the temperature anomalies of the 1990s are no higher than those of the 1940s, implying the larger contribution from warming of the cold periods to the long-term positive trend. Seasonal features of temperature changes for the last 97 years are characterized by the more rapid warming of wintertime and springtime, with summer showing an insignificant cooling trend during the 97-year period. However, the reanalysis did not take account for urbanization effect on temperature record. It is essential to pay more attention to the problem in the further study if we intend to better detect the regional change in climate.