An Actuarial Framework for Power System Reliability Considering Cybersecurity Threats
An Actuarial Framework for Power System Reliability Considering Cybersecurity Threats
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DOI：
10.1109/tpwrs.2020.3018701
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发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Zhaoxi Liu;Wei Wei-Wei;Lingfeng Wang;C. Ten;Yeonwoo Rho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhaoxi Liu;Wei Wei-Wei;Lingfeng Wang;C. Ten;Yeonwoo Rho
网络安全已成为电力系统安全运行的一个新问题。除了加强电力系统以提高其网络安全性外，网络保险正在成为网络风险管理的一个有前途的工具。在本文中，精算框架的建立，以捕捉和减少网络风险之间的相互依赖性所带来的风险，旨在加强网络保险市场的电力系统。提出了吸收半马尔可夫过程（SMP）模型的网络攻击对电网。此外，一个随机模型，以反映整个电力系统的网络风险的相关性。开发了一个顺序蒙特卡罗仿真（MCS）框架，以评估电力系统的中断，同时考虑组件的物理故障和恶意网络攻击。然后，详细的保险计划的设计，以管理电力系统的风险，考虑到网络安全威胁的财务后果。基于IEEE可靠性测试系统（RTS-79）的测试系统进行案例研究，以说明所提出的保险定价方案的应用。
Cybersecurity has become an emerging issue for the secure operation of power systems. Besides hardening the power system to improve its cybersecurity, cyber insurance is emerging as a promising tool in cyber risk management. In this paper, an actuarial framework is established to capture and reduce the riskiness raised by interdependence among cyber risks, with the aim to enhance cyber insurance market for power systems. Absorbing semi-Markov process (SMP) is proposed to model the cyberattacks on the power grid. Also a stochastic model is developed to reflect the correlation of cyber risks across the power system. A sequential Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) framework is developed to evaluate the interruptions of the power system considering both the physical failures of the components and malicious cyberattacks. Then, the detailed insurance schemes are designed to manage the risks of the power system considering the financial consequences of cybersecurity threats. Case studies are conducted on a test system based on the IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS-79) to illustrate the application of the proposed insurance pricing schemes.