Consensus forecasting of intertidal seagrass habitat in the Wadden Sea
Consensus forecasting of intertidal seagrass habitat in the Wadden Sea
复制标题
瓦登海潮间带海草栖息地共识预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Philippart
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eelke O. Folmer;J. V. Beusekom;T. Dolch;U. Gräwe;M. M. Katwijk;K. Kolbe;C. Philippart
1.在1970年代富营养化导致潮间带海草急剧减少之后，瓦登海出现了不同的发展。在瓦登海北部，海草床已经扩大，密度变得更高，而在瓦登海南部，只发现了低密度的小海草床。缺乏历史分布的文件阻碍了保护管理。然而，瓦登海北部的恢复为构建稳健的生境适宜性模型以支持管理提供了机会。我们根据17年北部瓦登海的海草调查和整个瓦登海的高分辨率水动力学和地貌，使用五种机器学习方法调整了栖息地分布模型。为了获得地理上可转移的模型，在通过非随机、空间交叉验证评估预测精度的基础上调整了超参数。空间交叉验证方法与感官模型方法相结合。预测的适宜性分数彼此相关，并与训练区的坚持观察相关联，表明模型收敛并可跨空间转移。通过对最优模型的预测值进行平均，提高了预测精度。我们使用面积调整后的每适宜性类别的海草频率(连续博伊斯指数)，以图形方式检验了共识适宜性得分与来自训练区以外的独立现场数据之间的关系。Boyce指数与适宜性得分呈正相关，表明预测方法的充分性。我们使用连续Boyce指数图和生境适宜性评分来划分不适宜、边缘和适宜三个生境类别，适用于整个国际摇摆海。这些信息对于栖息地保护和恢复管理是有价值的。预测的适宜性与最近过去的实际分布之间的差异表明，不明因素限制了瓦登海南部海草的发展。合成与应用。我们的方法和数据使我们能够产生一个可靠的和经过验证的共识栖息地适宜性模型。我们确定了潮间海草草甸可能形成并持续存在的高度合适的区域。我们的工作为在动态景观中进行有效的保护规划提供了科学基础，并设定了监测优先事项。
1. After the dramatic eutrophication-induced decline of intertidal seagrasses in the 1970s, theWadden Sea has shown diverging developments. In the northern Wadden Sea, seagrass bedshave expanded and become denser, while in the southern Wadden Sea, only small beds withlow shoot densities are found. A lack of documentation of historical distributions hampersconservation management. Yet, the recovery in the northern Wadden Sea provides opportunityto construct robust habitat suitability models to support management.2. We tuned habitat distribution models based on 17 years of seagrass surveys in the northernWadden Sea and high-resolution hydrodynamics and geomorphology for the entire WaddenSea using five machine learning approaches. To obtain geographically transferablemodels, hyperparameters were tuned on the basis of prediction accuracy assessed by non-random,spatial cross-validation. The spatial cross-validation methodology was combined with aconsensus modelling approach.3. The predicted suitability scores correlated amongst each other and with the hold-out observationsin the training area indicating that the models converged and were transferable acrossspace. Prediction accuracy was improved by averaging the predictions of the best models.4. We graphically examined the relationship between the consensus suitability score andindependent presence-only data from outside the training area using the area-adjusted seagrassfrequency per suitability class (continuous Boyce index). The Boyce index was positivelycorrelated with the suitability score indicating the adequacy of the prediction methodology.5. We used the plot of the continuous Boyce index against habitat suitability score to demarcatethree habitat classes – unsuitable, marginal and suitable – for the entire international WaddenSea. This information is valuable for habitat conservation and restoration management.6. Divergence between predicted suitability and actual distributions from the recent past indicatesthat unaccounted factors limit seagrass development in the southern Wadden Sea.7. Synthesis and applications. Our methodology and data enabled us to produce a robust andvalidated consensus habitat suitability model. We identified highly suitable areas where intertidalseagrass meadows may establish and persist. Our work provides scientific underpinningfor effective conservation planning in a dynamic landscape and sets monitoring priorities.
垂直自适应坐标在分层陆架海数值模型中的优势
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Gräwe;P. Holtermann;K. Klingbeil;H. Burchard
通讯作者：
H. Burchard