The Impact of Social Security on Return Migration among Latin American Elderly in the U.S.
The Impact of Social Security on Return Migration among Latin American Elderly in the U.S.
复制标题
社会保障对美国拉丁美洲老年人回国移民的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s11113-014-9339-4
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Vega,Alma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Vega,Alma
长期以来，国际移民一直被认为是劳动年龄成年人的专属领域。然而，老年人口的迅速多样化要求更多地关注这一群体的移徙模式及其可能的动机。这项研究调查了作为主要社会保障受益人的拉丁美洲移民，如果他们获得较低的社会保障福利，是否更有可能在以后的生活中返回自己的国家。这项研究对美国社会保障管理局(N=1,515)的受限数据使用回归不连续性方法，展示了一项自然实验的结果，在该实验中，由于福利计算公式中的错误计算，社会保障管理局出人意料地降低了1917-1921年出生队列的社会保障福利。结果表明，在接近这些日期出生的拉丁美洲的主要社会保障受益人中，约有10%的人返回移民，这种可能性不受社会保障福利水平的影响。
International migration has long been considered the preserve of working-age adults. However, the rapid diversification of the elderly population calls for increased attention to the migration patterns of this group and its possible motivations. This study examines whether Latin American immigrants who are primary Social Security beneficiaries are more likely to return to their home countries during later life if they receive lower Social Security benefits. Using a regression discontinuity approach on restricted data from the US Social Security Administration (N= 1,515), this study presents the results of a natural experiment whereby the Social Security Administration unexpectedly lowered the Social Security benefits of the 1917–1921 birth cohorts due to a miscalculation in the benefit-calculation formula. Results suggest that approximately 10 % of primary Social Security beneficiaries from Latin America born close to these dates return migrated, the probability of which was not affected by Social Security benefit levels.