Modeling the Dynamic Response of River Deltas to Sea‐Level Rise Acceleration
Modeling the Dynamic Response of River Deltas to Sea‐Level Rise Acceleration
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DOI：
10.1029/2022jf006762
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发表时间：
2022-09
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Hariharan;P. Passalacqua;Zhongyuan Xu;H. Michael;E. Steel;A. Chadwick;C. Paola;A. Moodie
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文献类型：
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作者：
J. Hariharan;P. Passalacqua;Zhongyuan Xu;H. Michael;E. Steel;A. Chadwick;C. Paola;A. Moodie
气候变化正在提高全球的海平面，海平面上升（SLR）可能会导致土地损失，盐水侵入地下水含水量，而其他不利的教练社区也会围绕未来的SLR轨迹，甚至在衰老的范围内都遇到了较大的范围。在这项工作中，我们将pydeltarcm数值模型模拟在三个不同的SLR轨迹下的三角洲进化：SLR的突然变化，SLR的等级加速在较高的SLR速率的响应中，即使在百年纪念的时间尺度上，SLR引起的通道迁移率也对应于SLR的轨迹和幅度变化的轨迹。表面配置应限于时间跨度，因此，随着海平面的增长，这项工作大致稳定。
Climate change is raising sea levels across the globe. On river deltas, sea‐level rise (SLR) may result in land loss, saline intrusion into groundwater aquifers, and other problems that adversely impact coastal communities. There is significant uncertainty surrounding future SLR trajectories and magnitudes, even over decadal timescales. Given this uncertainty, numerical modeling is needed to explore how different SLR projections may impact river delta evolution. In this work, we apply the pyDeltaRCM numerical model to simulate 350 years of deltaic evolution under three different SLR trajectories: steady rise, an abrupt change in SLR rate, and a gradual acceleration of SLR. For each SLR trajectory, we test a set of six final SLR magnitudes between 5 and 40 mm/yr, in addition to control runs with no SLR. We find that both surface channel dynamics as well as aspects of the subsurface change in response to higher rates of SLR, even over centennial timescales. In particular, increased channel mobility due to SLR corresponds to higher sand connectivity in the subsurface. Both the trajectory and magnitude of SLR change influence the evolution of the delta surface, which in turn modifies the structure of the subsurface. We identify correlations between surface and subsurface properties, and find that inferences of subsurface structure from the current surface configuration should be limited to time spans over which the sea level forcing is approximately steady. As a result, this work improves our ability to predict future delta evolution and subsurface connectivity as sea levels continue to rise.