Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets
Quantifying the range of future glacier mass change projections caused by differences among observed past-climate datasets
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量化由观测到的过去气候数据集之间的差异引起的未来冰川质量变化预测的范围
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-019-04868-0
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Yukiko Hirabayashi,Shinjiro Kanae
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Megumi Watanabe;Aki Yanagawa;Satoshi Watanabe;Yukiko Hirabayashi,Shinjiro Kanae
用作冰川模型输入的过去观测到的气候数据预计会因数据集而异，特别是高海拔降水数据。过去观测到的气候数据集之间的差异尚未被描述为冰川质量未来变化预测不确定性的原因，尽管经常讨论大气环流模型（GCM）中未来气候预测变化引起的不确定性。由于 GCM 的偏差校正和冰川模型的校准，预计过去观测到的气候数据集之间的差异将随着冰川质量未来变化的不确定性而传播。我们使用冰川模型预测了 2100 年亚洲冰川总量的未来变化。使用了一组 18 个输入组合，包括两个观测到的过去气温数据集、三个观测到的过去降水数据集以及来自三个 GCM 的未来气温和降水预测。冰川质量预测变化的不确定性分为三个不同的来源：GCM 不确定性、观测到的过去气温不确定性和观测到的过去降水不确定性。我们的研究结果表明，除了 GCM 之间气候预测的差异之外，观测到的过去气候数据集之间的差异还将大约 15% 的部分不确定性传播到冰川质量的预测变化中。与观测到的过去降水量相关的部分不确定性是观测到的气温的 33-50%。当消融占主导地位时，观测到的过去气温和降水的差异并没有同等地传播到冰川质量预测的最终不确定性中。
Observed past climate data used as input in glacier models are expected to differ among datasets, particularly those for precipitation at high elevations. Differences among observed past climate datasets have not yet been described as a cause of uncertainty in projections of future changes in glacier mass, although uncertainty caused by varying future climate projections among general circulation models (GCMs) has often been discussed. Differences among observed past climate datasets are expected to propagate as uncertainty in future changes in glacier mass due to bias correction of GCMs and calibration of glacier models. We project ensemble future changes in the mass of glaciers in Asia through the year 2100 using a glacier model. A set of 18 combinations of inputs, including two observed past air temperature datasets, three observed past precipitation datasets, and future air temperature and precipitation projections from three GCMs were used. The uncertainty in projected changes in glacier mass was partitioned into three distinct sources: GCM uncertainty, observed past air temperature uncertainty, and observed past-precipitation uncertainty. Our findings indicate that, in addition to the differences in climate projections among GCMs, differences among observed past climate datasets propagate fractional uncertainties of about 15% into projected changes in glacier mass. The fractional uncertainty associated with observed past precipitation was 33–50% that of the observed air temperature. Differences in observed past air temperatures and precipitation did not propagate equally into the ultimate uncertainty of glacier mass projection when ablation was dominant.
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亚洲高山冰川融化预测的气候强迫的不确定性
影响因子：
--
作者：
Megumi Watanabe;A. Yanagawa;Y. Hirabayashi;Satoshi Watanabe;A. Sakai;S. Kanae
通讯作者：
S. Kanae
影响因子：
8
作者：
Yatagai, Akiyo;Kamiguchi, Kenji;Kitoh, Akio
通讯作者：
Kitoh, Akio
MSP-Tool：基于 VBA 的软件工具，用于分析多样本古强度数据
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
M. Monster;L. Groot;M. Dekkers
通讯作者：
M. Dekkers
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1106242108
发表时间：
2011-08-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Fujita, Koji;Nuimura, Takayuki
通讯作者：
Nuimura, Takayuki
59 年（1948-2006）全球陆地表面模型气象强迫数据集。
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
Y. Hirabayashi;S. Kanae;K. Motoya;K. Masuda;P. Döll
通讯作者：
P. Döll